How to Watch the US Elections Like a Pro – POLITICO

But it has conducted a “straw poll” to signal a preference in every election since 1980, and will still send the results to Congress. In most cases (Trump’s 2016 victory is one exception), Guam’s result matches that of the eventual national winner. Because the area is 15 hours ahead of the US mainland, the poll will be scrutinized as an early indicator of the final outcome.

The results for individual counties within the states are then announced as they are counted in the hours after the polls close. Key areas and counties to watch include Door County in Wisconsin and Northampton County in Pennsylvania, both of which have a reputation for supporting the eventual winner.

Television networks and the Associated Press play a major role, competing to declare the winners, with states being “called” as if they had voted for one candidate or another if they believe they have achieved sufficient electoral district results. If they are confident, the media networks will eventually declare the ultimate winner. Because there’s a huge reputational risk involved if they’re wrong – and if the race is as close as the polls predict – it might be a while before anyone has the courage to call it out.

What are the issues that define the campaign?

Harris has made standing up for abortion rights the core of her campaign. Since the Supreme Court overturned it Roe v. Wade in 2022, states have proposed their own measures to restore women’s suffrage, a policy that is popular nationally. She has attacked Trump’s character, describing him as a fascist and arguing that the future of democracy is at stake.

Trump, for his part, has emphasized the economy, pledging tax cuts and worsening Biden’s record in overseeing a period of high inflation. The crackdown on immigration remains an explosive and central part of his policy offering, and he does so often courts controversy to get his point across.

Could the polls be wrong?

Naturally. Polls are a media obsession, generating enormous amounts of attention, dominating the battle and shaping the entire debate. But pollsters’ results in the recent US presidential election are poor.