Trump dodged a bullet. Let’s hope the world does too – and he loses

If, as I fear is likely, Donald Trump wins this week, future historians will mark November 5, 2024 as one of the turning points of the 21st century. We have become so wearily cynical about the exaggerated campaign rhetoric that declares every election “the most important in our lifetime” that, like the fable of the boy who cried wolf, we dismiss every alarm as alarmist. Our senses become so dulled by incessant exaggeration that when the real threat presents itself, we are slow to recognize it.

The word ‘fascist’ is usually a swear word that comes easily from the lips of irritable students and troublemakers. Remarkably, this is now the considered assessment of Trump from respectable senior generals, such as former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, and Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly. Never before has a major party presidential candidate failed to secure the support of a single previous candidate from the same party. Even Dick Cheney — who, as vice president to George W. Bush, was regarded by the left as a figure so evil that he was portrayed as a James Bond villain — has endorsed Kamala Harris.

Never before have so many conservatives sounded so many alarm bells about a Republican candidate. The warnings of sober people like Milley and Kelly — not political figures but military officers raised in an ethic of service — cannot be written off as hysterical campaign exaggeration. Only a fool – or a Fox News propagandist – would dismiss them.

But ironically, this is part of Trump’s almost mesmerizing appeal to his base. The more respectable conservatives, or members of the national security establishment, denounce him, the more compelling his stance as a champion of the alienated becomes. In a country where suspicion of the government runs deep, Trump’s narrative – that he, like his followers, are victims of “the deep state” – resonates. Trump is far from conservative, but a radical, a disruptor. His appeal not only works with those who feel marginalized by economic and social changes, but also reaches “tech bro” billionaires like Elon Musk, who also see themselves as disruptors.

Whether Trump is rightly described as a fascist or not, he is certainly a demagogue. And if the history of the past century has taught us anything, it is that we should take demagogues seriously. They usually mean what they say. The great paradox of this election is that you can probably trust a notorious and systematic liar to keep his promises.

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So we already have a pretty clear idea of ​​what a second Trump presidency would look like. He would abandon Ukraine on day one – he has pretty much already said that. One of the most notable moments of the campaign was when he was asked during his debate with Kamala Harris who he wanted to win the war. Not once, but twice, he conspicuously refused to say. He has repeatedly said he would end the war within the first 24 hours of his term.

There is only one way to do that: by ending US military support and forcing Volodymyr Zelensky into a negotiation in which Russia would hold all the cards. And so, the most serious violation of international law since World War II would be sanctioned, the aggressor would be rewarded, and Zelensky – whom the world not improbably compared to Winston Churchill just three years ago – would be thrown to the wolves.

The message to other dictators could not be clearer: under Trump, America will not defend its allies. Does anyone really believe that Putin wouldn’t read leaving Ukraine as a green light to put pressure on Russia’s other territorial objectives in the surrounding states to the south and west? Does anyone really believe that Xi Jinping wouldn’t read the same signals and come to the same conclusion about his own claims to Taiwan?