How legal battles could shape the 2024 US elections

With polls showing the two most important American presidential candidates Because the elections are statistically tied just one day before the election, there is no clear favorite to win the race.

What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that with the race this tight or uncertain, both sides are primed for a range of legal scenarios.

From questions about voter registration and identification to concerns about disenfranchisement and intimidation, the election could be decided not only at the ballot box but also in the courts.

“I would be ready for anything at this point,” says J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The new Arab.

“We could have anything from a repeat of 2000 to 2020 to anything in between. It looks like a few key states will come within a few points,” he said, referring to the two most litigious elections in modern American history.

The 2000 election was decided by the Supreme Court in favor of George W. Bush after a close race in Florida. Losing in 2020 Republican candidate Donald Trump tried to combat his losses in swing states by questioning the legitimacy of the polls.

This time, however, there will be much more legal fighting before voting day.

Both sides prepared for legal challenges

Multiple lawsuits have emerged in recent months, challenging voter registration and seeking to make it easier for local and state officials to deny certification of election results.

Meanwhile, civil rights organizations on the other side of the political spectrum are preparing for a tough fight against what many would describe as election subversion.

“They are ready to rock and roll with those lawsuits. On the other hand, the registrars of the election districts are also ready,” says Richard Groper, a political science lecturer at California State University, Los Angeles. TNA.

“They are prepared to fight the allegations of voter fraud. Who is the big loser? We all are, if we don’t have someone to concede on Election Day.”

In the final days before the elections, the average of the major polls rose Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris essentially equal, with most of them favoring one candidate or the other within the margin of error.

Some veteran pollsters have raised concerns about oversampling or overconfidence due to surprising outcomes in recent election cycles.

In 2016, Trump surprised many with his presidential victory after tearing down the so-called “blue wall” states of the post-industrial Midwest. In 2018, the “blue wave” included the victories of progressives, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who dethroned a supposedly “safe” incumbent.

In 2020, the country saw the “red mirage” in which Trump emerged in the lead on election night, only to have Joe Biden take the lead days later. The 2022 midterm elections, which many predicted would be a “red wave,” turned out to be an almost evenly divided Congress.

On the eve of the 2024 electionsMany veteran pollsters acknowledge that they have no prediction for the presidential race.

The importance of timing

Elections are not meant to be held again. Once they’re over, it’s almost unheard of for a repeat to happen.

As such, a slew of legal decisions have been made in recent days on election matters, such as upholding voter registration purges in Virginia, denying Republican challenges to out-of-state voters from Michigan and North Carolina, and requiring the counting of provisional ballots. in Pennsylvania.

“When it comes to suffrage, timing matters. Often the right time to mount a legal challenge is before the election,” said Chris Adolph, a political science professor at the University of Washington in Seattle who has testified as an expert witness. in case of disputed elections, told TNA.

“Courts typically prioritize election disputes over other matters because it is so difficult to repair the damage once the election is held,” he says.

There have been cases of individuals allegedly meddling in the elections, such as a technology billionaire Elon Musk By paying Pennsylvania residents to sign a petition, such cases are handled individually, with Musk already being taken to court.

“What happened in Pennsylvania could lead to sanctions against Musk, but it is unlikely to play a role in challenging the outcome of the election,” Adolph said. “Dirty tricks like this have always been part of American politics, but the legal consequences fall on those responsible.”

Lessons from the past

Lessons from the past are already shaping the legal landscape of the 2024 elections, particularly the advanced planning by both campaigns for different scenarios, but also having a framework in place to ensure that the winner of the election is able will be to come to power peacefully, to avoid a repeat of the chaos of the Uprising of January 6, 2021.

The Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022 was signed into law by Congress to prevent a repeat of Trump’s attempts to overturn the results of the election.

Among the provisions are that state certifications must reflect the will of the voters, that the role of the vice president in certifying the elections is purely ceremonial and that the successful candidate will receive the necessary support to come to power.

As for challenging the results of several states, the last election showed that Trump was unable to mount a serious legal challenge after state elections were counted and certified.

However, it is unclear what would happen if the election were to hang in the balance of one swing state, such as Wisconsin. Would Trump benefit from his appointment of conservative justices who now make up the majority of the Supreme Court?

Brooke Anderson is a correspondent for The New Arab in Washington, DC, covering American and international politics, business and culture.

Follow her on Twitter: @Brookethenieuws