Boeing delivery delays are a ‘pain in the back’

Take skift

The hulking Ryanair machine relies on hyper-efficiency and a ruthless examination of costs. In their own words, Ryanair had ‘too much planning, too many crew and too high costs’ this summer. This won’t happen again.

Gordon Smith

Ryanair warned on Monday of a continued hit to passenger growth due to Boeing delivery delays. Europe’s largest airline expects to carry 210 million passengers next year, down from its previous target of 215 million. It comes as the company reported an 18% decline in first-half net profit, slightly below analyst expectations.

Multiple factors play a role, but a shortage of new aircraft is one of the biggest problems. Ryanair was due to receive 11 Boeing 737 Max aircraft in the October to December quarter. Only two more are now expected in that period.

Ryanair CFO Neil Sorahan said Boeing engineers are on strike meant that delivery of the remaining nine aircraft will likely shift to the January-March quarter.

The airline originally planned 29 new jets before next year’s peak. Sorahan warned that further deliveries ahead of the all-important summer season could also be delayed. “I think some of them will slip. We won’t get them all before summer 2025. Maybe we’ll get 15 (new planes). At this stage, it is wise to plan our operations based on slower growth next year,” the CFO said.

Despite Ryanair adjusting its passenger forecast, the 210 million figure would still represent a 5% increase in annual traffic. It’s up – just not as much as growth-hungry airline executives would like.

On Monday, the company confirmed that it expects to carry 198 to 200 million passengers in the fiscal year ending March 2025. For context, it aims to attract 300 million passengers annually by the mid-2030s.

O’Leary keeps pressure on Boeing

Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary also spoke on Monday morning. He described the delays as “a pain in the backside” as he continues to talk to leaders at the plane maker.

“We still work closely with Kelly OrtbergStephanie Pope, and the team to expedite deliveries as best as possible. However, the risk of delays increases. “I think we have to accept that we won’t get all 29 of these planes before the summer of 2025,” he said.

O’Leary wants to avoid a repeat of this summer, when the airline was “overbooked, overstaffed and overloaded” due to a mismatch in resources and operations.

Like other affected customers, Boeing’s Irish low-cost carrier has received compensation for the delays. However, O’Leary questioned the amount and form of the financial story. “We receive modest compensation, but Boeing wants to restructure the compensation so that it takes the form of maintenance credits. It’s not significant. It certainly does not compensate for the loss of the five million passengers, or the further loss of five million passengers in (financial year) 2026.”

Earlier this year, the Federal Aviation Administration said it would not allow production expansion for the 737 Max program. This followed a serious incident on board an Alaska Airlines plane on January 5 when a door plug blew off mid-flight. Even if the current machinists’ strike is resolved, the FAA’s decision will make it more difficult for Boeing to ramp up deliveries to airline customers.

All eyes on the Max 10

The Ryanair Group had 172 Boeing 737 Max jets in service as of October 31. The total fleet consists of 608 aircraft. The company is eager to receive the new planes because they are cheaper to operate and can carry more passengers at a lower average cost than older models.

Once the current set of 737 Max 8 aircraft has been transferred to Ryanair, no further deliveries are planned until 2027. This mainly concerns the 737 Max 10 aircraft that have yet to be certified by aviation regulators. It is larger than the Max 8 and will be the largest aircraft in Ryanair’s fleet.

Speaking on Monday, Sorahan seemed confident that despite supply chain issues and regulatory hurdles, Ryanair could meet the current timeline.

“The Max 10 will only be certified once the (smaller) Max 7 is certified. We understand that the Max 7 is on track to be certified in the first half of 2025. If that happens, I think there is a very good chance that the Max 10 will be certified in the second half of 2025. This will put us on track to receive our first Max 10 in the first half of 2027,” said Ryanair’s CFO.

European ATC a ‘mess’

Looking beyond airline bottlenecks, O’Leary also addressed another of his favorite complaints, describing air traffic control across Europe this summer as “a mess.”

“We had record ATC delaysespecially during the first wave of departures. This is due to ATC’s shortage of staff and the staff they do not have at work. It’s completely unacceptable. There is no reason why that first wave of flights should be postponed because there is nothing in the air.”

O’Leary called for two changes to improve the situation: more ATC personnel, especially for early morning departures, and the right for planes to fly over countries during national ATC raids. “If (the European Commission) were to implement these two simple measures, both within their legal authority, you would eliminate about 90% of ATC delays, and that would be a huge environmental benefit to the industry,” O’Leary said . .

Ryanair’s average fares fell by 10% in the six months to September 30. The airline cited pressure on consumers’ living costs and persistently high interest rates as key factors. O’Leary said the decline in airfares “appears to continue to moderate,” but that the airline “remains cautious about the outlook for average fares in the third quarter.”

Ending on a more optimistic note, the Ryanair chief described advance bookings and demand for the current third quarter (October to December) as ‘strong’.

Skift has contacted Boeing for comment.