Polls show that NH voters may split their tickets again

Three recent polls indicate that New Hampshire voters are poised to elect a Republican governor Tuesday while backing the Democratic presidential nominee, as they did in 2016 and 2020, though the outcome is far from a foregone conclusion.

The University of New Hampshire Research Center results released On Sunday, Vice President Kamala D. Harris will be seen leading former President Donald. J. Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Two other recent studies, from the Saint Anselm College Research Center and the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinionsimilarly showed Harris ahead of Trump by 5 points and 7 points, respectively. All three leads were greater than the margin of error.

The same surveys showed that former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, the Republican candidate for governor of New Hampshire, had a narrow lead over former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, the Democratic candidate.

Ayotte led Craig by 4 points the UNH poll and 3 points in the Saint Anselm College poll, greater than the margin of error. She led by 2 points in the UMass Lowell poll, which was within the adjusted margin of error.

Pollsters also asked likely voters what they expected would happen. The results reflect a sense of uncertainty. In the presidential race, 42 percent said Harris is most likely to win the election, 42 percent said Trump is most likely to win, and 15 percent were unsure, according to the UNH survey.

In the gubernatorial race, Ayotte’s supporters expressed confidence in her chances of success, with 84 percent saying she was most likely to win. Her opponent’s supporters were less certain. Among Craig’s supporters, 47 percent said Craig is most likely to win, 27 percent said Ayotte is most likely to win, and 27 percent were unsure.

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Steven Porter can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @reporterporter.