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As we explain in our guide to the US elections (which you can find a link to in the ‘In Depth’ section at the top of the page), the winning candidate in Tuesday’s election must win at least 270 of the 538 available elections. votes of the council.

Steve Kornacki and Kristen Welker, political correspondents at our US partner network NBC News, looked at the most likely path to victory for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – and some more unusual or chaotic combinations.

Consider: In the seven core battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Joe Biden’s largest victory in 2020 was less than 2.8 percentage points in Michigan.

Trump’s biggest (and only) victory was less than 1.4 points in North Carolina. These states weren’t separated by much last time, and that could make for some unusual trends and combinations this time around.

Harris’ direct path: through the Great Lakes

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have all voted the same way in every election since 1992 – and all but one (2016) was Democrat.

Even before Ms. Harris stepped in for Mr. Biden, polls showed the Democratic ticket doing better in these three states than in the battlegrounds of the Sun Belt.

This is partly because Trump’s electoral gains this year come from younger and non-white (particularly Hispanic) voters, who are less numerous in these states.

All Ms. Harris has to do is hold on to this trio (and avoid any surprises elsewhere) and she will get the 270 electoral votes she needs.

Trump’s direct path: through the Sun Belt

For most of this year, Trump has done stronger in Georgia and Arizona than in the northern battleground states.

This is partly due to the progress he has made with non-white voters, especially younger Latinos. Since entering the race, Ms. Harris has gained ground among these voters, potentially opening a Sun Belt path of her own.

Still, it would take very little for Trump to flip Georgia (he lost by just under 12,000 votes in 2020) and Arizona (last time the margin was just over 10,000 votes).

If he does that (and doesn’t have any problems in North Carolina), he just needs someone from Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of those three, Wisconsin came closest in 2020, where Trump lost by about 20,000 votes.

More unusual scenarios: Can Trump win without North Carolina?

North Carolina is the only state of the seven core battleground states that Trump actually won in 2020 — but he only widened the lead by 1 percentage point. The Trump campaign increased its spending in North Carolina after Ms. Harris rose to the top of the ticket.

But in the event that Mr. Trump falls short and Ms. Harris becomes the first Democrat since 2008 to win the state, Mr. Trump still has a path to victory.

That path would involve Trump tearing down the “blue wall” and taking all of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin with him, as he did in 2016. It would mean that the seven core states would not move in the same direction, since Biden won. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2020 while losing North Carolina.

Even if Trump wins these three states, he would still have to win Arizona or Georgia to achieve a victory without North Carolina.

More unusual scenarios: Can Harris win without Pennsylvania?

A major development since Ms. Harris replaced Mr. Biden at the top of the Democratic party is the party’s improved prospects in the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

And this expanded Democratic map gives Ms. Harris the opportunity to gain 270 electoral votes even if she loses in the Great Lakes states.

Let’s look at a scenario in which Mr Trump wins in both Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) – where the polls are still close.

Ms. Harris can still get above 270 electoral votes by winning Georgia (16 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes) and North Carolina (16 electoral votes).

Or say that Ms. Harris also loses Nevada. She can still make up for it by winning Arizona and its eleven electoral votes. Again, this scenario would rely on states moving in opposite directions compared to 2020.

But who’s to say that the populations haven’t changed enough, being so close together at the time, to create an unusual situation?