Here's who's in charge in the key 2024 election battlegrounds

Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially a tossup, with the final polls ahead of Sunday and Monday’s elections showing the candidates splitting the seven swing states — and crucial Pennsylvania is virtually directly.

Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.

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Key facts

Nevada: This is also a toss-up: Trump is ahead by 0.3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading 49%-46% and YouGov has Harris ahead 48%-47%, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%.

Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump advantage: He has a 0.7 point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads 50%-49% Emerson’s poll50%-48% in the Morning consultation survey and 48%-46% in the YouGov poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47% in the Times/Siena poll.

North Carolina: Another small advantage for Trump: he leads by 0.9 points FiveThirtyEight’s dataand is ahead 49%-48% according to Emerson, 49%-47% according to Morning Consult and 48%-47% according to YouGov, although Harris leads 48%-46% in the Times/Siena questionnaire.

Michigan: It’s a margin of error for Harris: She leads by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data, 50%-48% in the Emerson polls, 49%-48% in the Morning Consult survey, and 47%-45% according to YouGov, but they are tied for 47% in the New York Times/Siena questionnaire.

Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage: she is 1.1 points higher per FiveThirtyEightand she leads Trump 48%-45% according to YouGov and 49%-47% according to Times/Siena, but in the Emerson polls they are tied at 49%, and Morning Consult has a lead of about one point ahead Trump.

Arizona: It’s the biggest lead of any swing state and still extremely close: Trump is 2.2 points higher in the FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads 49%-45% by Times/Siena, 50%-48% by Emerson and 48 %-47% according to YouGov, although Morning Consult found a tie at 48%.

Big number

1.1 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polls average.

Who is favored to win the elections?

It’s extremely close. FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 52% chance of winning, while statistician Nate Silver take his chances at 50.4%. If the polling averages above are correct in all seven swing states, Harris will win a narrow election victory – but the polls could easily be finishedand even a small mistake either way could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide.

Is Iowa a swing state?

Probably not, but a new poll Saturday has raised some eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer Found Harry Trump leads 47%-44%, a shocking result considering Selzer’s stellar reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the poll’s findings — which suggested women, independents and older voters have turned sharply against Trump — will be replicated in other swing states, such as neighboring Wisconsin.

Tangent

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance, dramatically changing Democrats’ fortunes. Prior to the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris maintains lead in 4 new polls (Forbes)

Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in polling averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Nearly Tied in the New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Polls in Georgia 2024: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has a narrow lead but struggles with Latino voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest surveys show Trump with a slight lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Trump has advantage in latest Swing State poll (Forbes)