Update at 7 a.m. from the National Hurricane Center

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) -Rafael is getting better organized. Rafael will continue to move northwestward in the coming days, strengthening itself as it does so. Models are still split between a more northerly versus a westerly move towards the end of the forecast track. The official number is a mix of the two possible cases. It is forecast to be a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf. There are no changes to watches, warnings or advisories at this time.

The strong ridge of high pressure that has brought us sunny afternoons and largely rain-free skies will begin to drift eastward. This shift is in response to an approaching upper level trough that is slowly advancing from the west. As high temperatures move into the Atlantic Ocean, our winds will shift to the southeast, introducing more moisture into the mid-70s and raising dew points – levels typical of a late summer afternoon. This will raise our ‘feeling temperatures’ into the mid-90s, with afternoon air temperatures rising into the mid-80s.

In the afternoon the clouds will become thicker and showers will occur more often than in recent days. You can expect windy conditions, with gusts of up to 40 km/h. However, the most significant weather changes will occur on Wednesday.

A tropical cyclone – likely to strengthen into Hurricane Rafael – will enter Gulf waters on Wednesday. This system will channel moisture throughout the state. While widespread flooding is not expected due to the intermittent nature of the rainfall, rain totals could reach several inches before the storm moves away Thursday. Although we are at marginal risk of excessive rainfall, recent dry conditions mean the risk of flooding remains low.

The storm will remain far enough offshore that storm surges along the coast will not be a problem. Additionally, atmospheric conditions are not conducive to tornado formation, so no severe weather is expected.

On Thursday evening the chance of rain decreases to 20%, with a chance of a few showers. It remains moist, but we are starting to dry out.

We can look forward to more sun and drier air on Friday.