China and the US are discussing critical issues under threat as the new Trump era looms

By Greg Torode and Antoni Slodkowski

HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) – Newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump inherits a relationship between the United States and China that was reset over the past year by Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping as ties emerge from a diplomatic low after COVID-19 and the to bring tension to Taiwan.

Formal talks are underway on a range of critical issues, but regional diplomats and analysts say these channels, key to managing strained ties, could be on the chopping block with Trump in the White House. They include:

DEFENSE

Improved communications between the two militaries have helped keep tensions in check in regional hotspots, as Chinese and Philippine coast guard and fishing vessels face off almost weekly in the disputed South China Sea as the Chinese air force continues to test Taiwan’s defenses with combat readiness patrols close to the island. .

More work lies ahead to make them sustainable amid China’s military modernization and U.S. efforts to ensure its traditional dominance of the Asian theater, analysts say.

Some fear military ties could be the first to be jettisoned if new turbulence arises, pointing to the military chill that lasted nearly two years after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022.

Communications have gradually improved on a number of defense fronts since Xi and Biden agreed to deepen ties when they met in person in November 2023.

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, held a rare meeting with Xi’s top military adviser, Zhang Youxia, in August during three days of talks in Beijing. He has also had regular intensive meetings with his top diplomat Wang Yi.

The first talks between theater-level commanders in September reflected a long-standing U.S. push to stabilize military ties and reduce misunderstandings amid broader regional tensions.

Some analysts say the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii is likely to maintain deployments at current levels, but near-term uncertainty about Trump’s approach would be keenly felt by both Chinese leaders and military commanders.

“In this scenario, I would expect military leaders to be much sharper in their deployment around flashpoints such as the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the disputed areas with Japan,” said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill.

“The leadership doesn’t like unpredictability,” said Neill, an associate at the Pacific Forum in Hawaii.

Suspended talks on China’s growing nuclear weapons program are also likely to be a focus in coming months, with the Biden team eager to make progress but Beijing reluctant.

Some analysts say Beijing, with an arsenal much smaller than those of both the United States and Russia, sees little benefit from such talks.

“It is telling that even during the current mild thaw between Washington and Beijing, Beijing still halted arms control talks with Washington earlier this year,” said Jon Czin, a foreign policy specialist at the Brookings Institution.

FENTANYL

There has been incremental but visible progress in cooperation in ending the illicit trade of chemicals used to produce the deadly fentanyl, after Xi and Biden agreed to resume joint efforts at the November 23 meeting.

The United States, where fentanyl abuse is a leading cause of death, has urged China to tighten law enforcement, including cracking down on illicit financing and tightening further controls on the chemicals.

In June, China’s top prosecutor urged its law enforcement officials to focus on combating drug trafficking as Beijing and Washington unveiled a rare joint investigation into drugs.

In August, days after a meeting of a joint working group on counter-narcotics, China said it would tighten controls on three chemicals key to fentanyl production.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate diplomacy between the world’s two biggest greenhouse gas emitters has helped build momentum for global treaties such as the Paris Agreement and played a key role in building consensus at last year’s COP28 meeting in Dubai.

With Trump expected to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for a second time, cooperation between the two countries on climate issues will end, although subnational initiatives with the state of California and others are expected to continue.

Trump’s impending return to the White House could also undermine efforts to convince China to adopt more ambitious emissions reduction targets for 2035, with Beijing already chafing at US “green trade barriers” in electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels .

ECONOMY

Less visibly, the two rivals hold regular meetings of working groups on economic and financial issues launched in September 2023.

At a two-day meeting in Beijing in September, Chinese officials expressed “serious” concerns about additional US tariffs, investment restrictions and Russia-related sanctions.

The broader dialogue effort is important and has made “meaningful progress,” said Zhao Minghao of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies.

“But for Beijing, there are legitimate concerns about these dialogues that, under a Trump presidency, could be halted and halted again,” he added.

(This story has been corrected to include analyst’s name in paragraph 24)

(Additional reporting by Antoni Slodkowski and Laurie Chen in Beijing and David Stanway in Singapore; Editing by Antoni Slodkowski and Clarence Fernandez)