Will Costa Rica Follow Ecuador Down the Path to Criminal Ruin?

High levels of violence indicate how once-peaceful Costa Rica is feeling the tightening grip of cocaine trafficking. But is the Central American country on a similar path to Ecuador to the south?

Costa Rica’s homicides have grown slowly over the last several years but spiked to reach a historic high in 2023 with 907 recorded killings, or 17.2 murders per 100,000. That was a 38% increase in killings compared to 2022, where they lay at 12.2 per 100,000a huge rise compared to previous years. In 2012, the county reported just 407 murders.

To combat continued violence, in mid-October President Rodrigo Chaves Robles issued an executive decree allowing law enforcement officers to use automatic weapons in certain situations. The move, aimed at leveling the playing field against criminals who are increasingly heavily armed, was accompanied by a video from the presidential office.

SEE ALSO: Costa Rica Considers Extradition to Counter Growing Judicial Corruption

“In a gunfight, high-caliber automatic weapons like the AK-47 give the upper hand… This unequal fight needs to end. That’s why, though some want to continue giving hugs to those who give bullets, the government will do everything in its power to balance things,” said the video commentary.

Costa Rica’s Caribbean port city of Limon in Límon Province, together with the nearby Moín container port, is a drug trafficking hotspot and favored departure point for cocaine shipments to Europe. By 2023, 214 homicides were registered in Límon Province, a higher number than in San José, despite a population three times smaller. The region’s largest drug trafficking groups want access to these ports to move cocaine out of Latin America, and local partners to help them. As a result, Costa Rica’s local criminal organizations are growing increasingly powerful and sophisticated.

The experience of nearby Ecuador is a cautionary tale for Costa Rica, showing how easily a country’s organized crime violence can spin out of control. Bordered by Colombia and Peru, two of the world’s largest cocaine producers, foreign transnational drug trafficking networks have entrenched themselves in the country over the last several years as they push record breaking cocaine tonnage toward international markets. Ecuador’s homicides jumped 74.5% year on year in 2023 to 8,008, a presidential candidate was assassinated, public security is weak, and kidnapping is rife. Now, the country is currently locked in a costly war against gangswhich have been emboldened and strengthened by the profits of the cocaine trade.

InSight Crime Analysis

Costa Rica is far from Ecuador’s situation, but a series of red flags point toward a worsening security outlook and have the authorities on edge.

Homicides remain high in San José, the country’s capital and most populated area, and Límon, but violence is also increasing in other areas such as Puntarenas, on the Pacific coast.

Corruption cases involving members of the judiciary more than doubled between 2019 and 2023. Low police wages, which start at about $600 per month, have long been a point of concern about the vulnerability of the force to bribery and corruption.

SEE ALSO: Durán: A Window into Ecuador’s Organized Crime Explosion

Moreover, organized crime is said to be leveraging widening social inequalities in the country. Puntarenas in particular stood out to Mary Fran Malone, a professor of political science and international affairs at the University of New Hampshire, who authored a recent study on perceptions of insecurity in Costa Rica.

“It isn’t just that Puntarenas is a port area. If you look at levels of economic activity for men between 18 and 25, and levels of education, and all of these indicators, you can see that systematically the number of people who have been marginalized has grown larger … and that’s going to be a magnet for gang recruitment,” she told InSight Crime.

Crime groups are recruiting people as young as 13 years old, Costa Rica’s Judicial Investigation Department (Organismo de Investigación Judicial – OIJ) has stated. Randall Zúñiga, head of the OIJ, said there are some 5,000 active gang members in the country. And with the increasing availability of cocaine, the country’s local organized crime groups are becoming stronger and more complex, according to a report on the evolution of gangs in Pavas, San José.

Yet despite this, Costa Rica is in a stronger position than Ecuador to counter the growing threat from organized crime groups.

The control of Ecuador’s prison system was vital to the evolution of the country’s criminal groups. Gangs like the Lobos, Chonerosand Tiguerones born within the prison system for decades before carrying out assassinations on the country’s streets. As far back as 2007, then-President Rafael Correa warned of the danger of gangs’ control of prisons, description the country’s prison system as “a ticking time bomb.” But 15 years later, authorities were unable to prevent the repeated prison massacres that heralded the gangs’ increasing strength.

Costa Rica has no such prison issue. “Gangs do not control the prisons like they do in other countries,” Zúñiga told InSight Crime. The country has a low percentage of pre-trial detainees – around half that of Ecuador – according to the World Prison Brief. This reduces the mingling of people awaiting trial with gang members and suppresses a traditional source of gang recruitment.

In response to corruption concerns, Chaves Robles on July 30 announced the largest wage increase for police officers in the country’s history. Moreover, generalized corruption is far lower in Costa Rica than in Ecuador, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, helping slow any attempt from criminal groups to penetrate and influence public institutions.

Costa Rica has no army to launch a militarized response to organized crime’s encroachment, having dissolved its armed forces in 1949. However, the country is attentive to the threats it faces and already appears to be having some success in combatting crime. This year’s homicides are projected to decline slightly, Zúñiga told InSight Crime. OIJ reports indicate a 3.36% drop in homicides during the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

In this sense, Costa Rica’s security situation is perhaps closer to Chile than Ecuador.

In Chile, drug trafficking organizations and Venezuelan mega-gang Tren de Aragua fueled a 32% increase in homicides in 2022. A subsequent drop or 7% in 2023 helped allay fears of an Ecuador-like collapse. A clear message from President Gabriel Boric that Chile, and in particular the Santiago Metropolitan District, has a crime problem, helped the government move quickly. For example, the government recently added 500 officers to the police force in Santiago, announced the construction of a prison where only the leaders of criminal groups will be held, and published plans to reinforce its northern border region where much of the violence has been centered.

While the year is not yet over, early indications are that homicides could drop in Costa Rica this year. Once dubbed the Switzerland of Central America, Costa Rica may have greater resilience to transnational organized crime and be able to contain the interest and influence of the global cocaine trade.

Feature Image: Members of Costa Rica’s OIJ investigate a crime scene following a shooting. Credit: Unidad de Exiliados Nicaragüenses