Editorial: Trump must manage US-China relations responsibly after his re-election

The re-election of former US President Donald Trump, who has emphasized an “America first” approach, has raised concerns about a possible escalation of tensions with China. Situations that could give rise to global unrest must be avoided.

Trump has stated his intention to impose a blanket 60% tariff on goods from China. During his first term, he imposed tariffs of up to 25%. If he were to actually go ahead with the measure, China would inevitably respond with retaliatory tariffs.

If the two countries were to engage in another trade war, the impact on China’s economy, which is suffering from a real estate crisis, would be enormous. Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a congratulatory message to Trump that “both countries can gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,” apparently warning him against weaponizing tariffs.

The United States would also not escape such an action. High tariffs would drive up the price of imports and reignite inflation. Trump must act carefully.

Concerns about comments about Taiwan

Trump’s stance toward China reveals a diplomatic strategy in which he is willing to sacrifice international rules and cooperation with other countries to protect his country’s economy and industries. This approach differs from that of President Joe Biden’s administration, which has prioritized values ​​such as democracy and the rule of law and strengthened cooperation with allies.

However, diplomacy that overemphasizes practical benefits can lead to fractured ties with allies and create openings for authoritarian states. Regional and global stability would be threatened.

One issue that has received a lot of attention is Trump’s approach to Taiwan. During his election campaign, Trump stated in an interview with a media outlet that he would impose additional tariffs on China of “150% to 200%” if it “entered Taiwan.” He essentially suggested that tariffs would deter China from using force. At the same time, Trump said Taiwan was “taking over the entire (US) chip business” and declared: “They should pay us for defense.” These statements are in stark contrast to those of the Biden administration, which positioned Taiwan as a partner in the democratic camp, underscoring strong support for the island territory.

This series of statements could send the wrong message to China that the US would not become deeply involved in the Taiwan issue.

China, meanwhile, has clearly stated that it will not rule out the use of force to unify Taiwan with the mainland. In May and October this year, it conducted large-scale military exercises near the island. It is believed that this was in anticipation of a maritime blockade.

Speculation is simmering in Taiwan that the US military would not intervene even if China were to use force against the country. Trump is said to be reluctant to continue supporting Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion, which could deepen mistrust over the US’s hesitant approach. This could work against the government of Lai Ching-te, chairman of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, which has made a point of not bowing to China’s pressure, and shake its support base.

If China were to use force against Taiwan, it would dramatically change the security environment in East Asia. Supply of advanced semiconductors from Taiwan, where manufacturing is concentrated, would be halted, dealing a blow to the global economy. Trump must recognize Taiwan’s strategic importance.

Multilateral frameworks put to the test

The effects of a shift from a diplomatic strategy focused on democracy and other similar values ​​extend beyond Taiwan. If Washington does not take a tough stance on Beijing’s overbearing actions in the South China Sea and human rights issues in Hong Kong and ethnic minority areas, the situation will worsen.

On issues such as climate change and nuclear weapons control, where efforts by the United States and China are crucial, cooperation would likely stall, with global consequences.

The Biden administration has promoted dialogue with China from a crisis management perspective, while also working to encircle China through alliances and multilateral frameworks.

Trump, meanwhile, might emphasize bilateral ties and turn to “deals.” If he adopts such an approach with China, the raison d’être of multilateral frameworks would fade and the interests of allies would also be undermined.

China has worked with Russia to strengthen ties with emerging and developing countries, collectively called the Global South, through the intergovernmental organization BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Eurasia. This signals China’s ambition to build a new world order that is not led by the US

If the United States turns a blind eye to the behavior of authoritarian states willing to change the status quo by force and abandons its role as leader of the democratic camp, it will lose the trust of its allies.

The postwar international order has also benefited the United States. Trump must be aware of his responsibilities and promote diplomacy with China so that the foundations of this order are not further shaken.