Alberta has been under pressure as job growth slows and the labor market changes

The Business Council of Alberta’s latest winter snapshot shows the province’s economy is showing signs of strain as national and global pressures begin to take their toll.

While the province remains above the national average in economic performance, cracks are beginning to appear in the economic foundation.

The report shows that the labor market is undergoing significant changes. Although the province continues to add jobs faster than most of Canada, the pace of job creation has slowed significantly.

“October was a pretty good month for the Alberta labor market, we added about 13,000 jobs,” said Mike Holden, vice-president and chief economist of the Alberta Business Council.

“But if you look back over the last six months, there hasn’t been a lot of job growth.”

However, Holden admits that this has been the case before, making the annualized profits significant.

“The number of vacancies that companies have, what they want to post and the positions they’re trying to fill – they’re essentially eliminating them,” Holden said.

“So what’s happening here is not a lot of new jobs are being created.”

The report outlines that job creation has slowed particularly in goods-producing sectors, including oil and gas, where growth is now less than one percent per year.

Currently, Alberta’s unemployment rate is 7.3 percent, with three unemployed people for every vacancy.

Holden says the imbalance is especially concerning for recent immigrants, who have more difficulty finding work.

“Those are the people who have a much harder time finding work because there aren’t many new jobs available for these newcomers,” he said.

Holden says there aren’t many opportunities for newcomers in Alberta.

“When it comes to recent immigrants, people who have been in Alberta for less than five years or kids coming out of school, in the 15 to 24 age range, and that’s how it’s broken down, those are the people who are struggling . It’s harder to find work because there aren’t many new jobs available for these newcomers.”

An employee works on a modular home component at NRB Modular Solutions in Calgary, Friday, April 5, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

Alberta is still growing

A major driver of Alberta’s economy remains its growing population. The county’s population recently grew by 4.1 percent, with nearly half of that growth attributed to temporary residents.

Migration within Canada also played an important role and was responsible for 23 percent of population growth.

However, future population growth could slow as the federal government has set new, lower immigration targets.

“We’re not creating jobs fast enough to sustain the population growth we’re seeing,” Holden said.

“The biggest long-term challenge is actually that Canada’s productivity record is so poor.”

The report also states that nearly 40 per cent of Albertans are concerned about the economy, with many also fearing job losses.

Holden says lower interest rates will bring relief to consumers and businesses by having a positive impact on job growth.

However, it may take several years before this is reflected in the economy.