What’s behind the violent lockdown in Pakistan?

Here’s what’s behind the unrest:

Khan’s star power is as strong as ever, even from prison

Cricket legend Khan could mobilize huge demonstrations and send crowds into a frenzy with his claim that he was removed from power in a conspiracy hatched by the US and its arch-rival Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif and Washington deny it.

Khan presents himself as an outsider who is a victim of the establishment. His opponents say he is a corrupt demagogue who incites violence. Although imprisoned on various charges, Khan has successfully used social media and even AI to communicate with people across Pakistan. And they’re showing up in droves, bringing cities to a standstill.

Khan’s wife is out of prison and leading the march

Khan’s wife Bushra Bibi leads the march, adding a dynamic that was missing from previous protests. She was held in a high-security prison on corruption charges until she was released on bail a few weeks ago.

Her presence in a convoy of vehicles, combined with rare public speeches before adoring crowds, has been a major factor in attracting supporters during her husband’s absence. The spiritual healer was the driving force behind the latest protest, insisting she would lead it from the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Islamabad.

Bibi is Khan’s third wife. The government alleged that she and Khan had broken a law that says a woman must wait three months before she can remarry. She was previously married to a man who claimed they divorced in November 2017. less than three months before she married Khan. Bibi has said that they divorced in August 2017.

Her conviction and imprisonment outraged women and rights groups in Pakistan, broadening her appeal beyond Khan’s political base.

The government is failing to keep the enormous unrest under control

Shelling. Threat of live fire. abuse. None of these tactics deter Khan’s supporters.

Authorities tried to stop them from entering the capital, but were unsuccessful. On Tuesday, they approached Islamabad’s Red Zone, where key government buildings are located and is the stated destination for the meeting.

The Interior Ministry said police can decide the level of force needed to deal with protesters. So far, the police have shown restraint. The apparent order to shoot on sight increases the risk of casualties and raises the specter of widespread violence.

The unrest coincides with a visit by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is staying in the Red Zone.

The unrest and violence can last for days

Pakistan and its capital are no strangers to unrest and violence. But the last two pro-Khan rallies have drawn a strong response from the government and an even stronger pushback from Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

The economic costs of even partial lockdowns are running into hundreds of millions of dollars every day, losses the cash-strapped country cannot afford.

The government has refused to give in to demands for Khan’s release due to his immense popularity and the threat he poses to the ruling elite.

Khan’s supporters, meanwhile, are vowing to do whatever it takes to get him out of jail and back in power, even if it means risking their lives.

Originally published: November 26, 2024 at 10:17 am CST