Modi challenged by Indian voters’ silent strategy? Counter currents

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a master strategist in the art of electoral maneuvering to stay ahead in political dramas, seems unsure of what strategies will determine his large-scale electoral success. Certainly, he has always been an expert at convincing crowds of the “credibility” of his words. But now it seems that the world-famous politician himself is not very convinced about the impact of his words on the voters he is trying to reach. And pray, the obvious question is: If he doesn’t seem happy with his own communications strategy, how and why should the people he’s trying to reach be similarly satisfied? His mastery of this skill played a crucial role not only in winning the 2014 and 2019 legislative elections, but also in securing his command inside and outside his camp. Apart from propagating his Modi-wave image nationally and internationally, he has successfully promoted the ‘belief’ that there is no other leader of his caliber/class in India. To some extent, the international media still seems quite convinced of this point; at least that’s what the media coverage given to Modi generally suggests. In contrast, national media outlets have recently begun to display a tacit withdrawal from extensive and exclusive coverage of his case.

Of course, it is too early and would also be hasty to link this to possible election results, although speculation has already started at some levels. However, certain realities on the ground cannot be ignored. One of them is perhaps one that Modi himself may have taken careful note of. Despite its “success” on the Ayodhya front, public opinion does not seem to attach much importance to it. Modi-wave’s chants, hailing him for his achievements, no longer seem to resonate as loudly and frequently as before. Of course, the heatwave could be partly to blame. Or would it be fair to assume that people are not as convinced as they seemed to be by Modi’s anti-Congress claims, rhetoric and speeches? It’s possible. He has been in power for ten years, which for young voters as well as economically weak and other sections was sufficient time for him to fulfill his promises, which were certainly not limited to the Ayodhya issue , which is the display and use of one’s “religious power”. ” map.

Modi’s ten-year stay in power is apparently now judged more highly by voters than it probably was before. He is judged by voters across the country, not limited to his home state of Gujarat. Moreover, previously, voters hit by Modi-wave had hardly deliberated in choosing to go along with what he said. Essentially, the electoral fate of the BJP was decided by a considerable number of voters being andhbhakts (blind devotees) of Modi. Of course, the fact that this did not help the BJP get even fifty percent of the votes cannot be ignored. And yet the party won. Now, the harsh reality that a considerable number of andhbhakts do not seem as enamored with Modi-wave as they were earlier cannot be ignored. This certainly contributes to a fairly noticeable decline in Modi-wave. It is true that to some extent the hype generated earlier about Modi-wave was manipulated/fabricated. Now, reservations as well as restraint seem to be exercised on this front as well. It is possible that Modi-wave matters little or is unappealing in the context of the grievances faced by ordinary Indians. The manipulated image probably doesn’t matter in the face of the harsh, basic realities people face. Maybe. It is not surprising that even the religious and anti-Congress rhetoric of Modi and other BJP stalwarts are not of much help in boosting their electoral appeal.

The preceding points suggest notable changes in the voting trend in several respects. Statistically, the chances of Modi and his party being supported by as many votes as before are unlikely. This can also be indicated in the fact that the vote bank in favor of the BJP seems to be lower compared to 2014 and 2019. But the prospects of the BJP are not doing as well as before and/or the number of seats that he wins/loses cannot be dissociated from this one. some other factors. Among these, one of them is: towards whom do the votes choosing not to support the BJP turn? Splitting these votes could still help the BJP win. If these voters’ decision is primarily determined by their anti-BJP attitude, then a lot will likely depend on who they vote for, whether or not there is unity/division in their decision. This trend could depend heavily on the nature of the unity and electoral strength displayed by the BJP’s rivals. The electoral strength of the BJP’s rivals would be primarily determined by voters’ movements for/against them.

Clearly, the campaign of the Congress and other rivals of the BJP as well as the INDIA bloc’s seat-sharing deal cannot be ignored. However, the results will not simply be determined by the positive/negative impact of those campaigning for/against Modi (BJP). Much depends on the seriousness and unity of their electoral power – defeating Modi proves to be a necessity. The key role in determining outcomes depends on how voters exercise their power. The final decision does not simply depend on whether or not they are more heavily influenced by Modi’s rivals. But whether or not they want Modi to return for a third term. If they want to, the question of whether they will vote for anything other than the BJP’s electoral symbol – the lotus – requires no deliberation. But if they strongly oppose his return to power, the chances of them taking a determined and decisive stance on this front are very high. The rift within the BJP over Modi’s return could also turn the tide against it. However, there is not much noise about it. The same can be said about significant sections of voters who silently chose to oppose his return by voting against the BJP. It is not simply a question of their vote against the BJP but of that of the candidate as a bloc to ensure his victory against the first (BJP). Although statistically this election is a numbers game, this gamble is also proving difficult for master strategists, apparently due to strategies exercised silently by grassroots voters. From this perspective, the 2024 elections can be seen as a demonstration of a democratic strategy exercised forcefully and silently by voters to ensure control of their electoral prowess and ensure the success or defeat of the ruling party. Or more explicitly, the key question rests on the number of votes specifically cast for Modi or against him!

Nilofar Suhrawardy is a veteran journalist and writer specializing in communications studies and nuclear diplomacy. She has released several books. These include: – Modi’s victory, a lesson for the Congress…? (2019); The Arab Spring, not just a mirage! (2019), Image and substance, Modi’s first year in office (2015) and Ayodhya without the community stamp, in the name of Indian secularism (2006).