MH3’s pre-emptive bans fail to stop the dominant archetype!

Unsurprisingly, the Modern format in particular has gotten a lot of attention this week. Modern Horizons 3 cards are tournament legal, and many elite strategies have emerged using the new goodies. However, MH3 also affects a multitude of other formats.

Some players have tinkered with Nadu, the Winged Wisdom combo, and other various strategies in Legacy. Meanwhile, there is a strong belief that Necrodominance could be a card worthy of banishing in Legacy, given how easy it is to speed up with Dark Ritual. Pauper has already seen a pre-emptive ban on Cranial Ram, who obviously would have been a force to be reckoned with in Grixis Affinity.

Oddly enough, it seems like Grixis Affinity continues to get a huge boost from MH3. Despite countless bans aimed at limiting Affinity, the game continues to receive more and more toys every year. Could we finally see a ban on one of the artifact lands? To help answer this question, it’s important to delve into what makes Affinity such a scary deck and examine the new tools that have given the deck a significant boost.

The evolution of Affinity

Grixis Affinity in Pauper is an archetype that has truly stood the test of time. The goal is to maximize the power of artifact lands like the Great Furnace that have remained impoverished powers for over a decade. While these lands can be a bit vulnerable to artifact hate cards, they provide a multitude of benefits.

First of all, they make it very easy to deal with any affinity threat sooner than expected. Cards like Myr Enforcer or Frogmite don’t seem scary individually, but when you can cast multiple copies in the same turn without investing mana, they make closing the game easier.

Years ago, Affinity shells were even more aggressive than they are today. The presence of Atog or Cranial Plating gave players the ability to one-shot the opponent in a single attack. When Modern Horizons 2 came out, Sojourner’s Companion added a ton of redundancy to the “top end” of the deck, acting like Myr Enforcers five through eight.

All of these cards have been banned for a while now and Affinity cases have been forced to adapt. Well, Affinity decks may be different today, but they’re still extremely powerful. Rather than relying on assertiveness to their advantage, Affinity decks are primed to play much harder games these days.

The deck’s high artifact density reliably allows Thoughtcast and Deadly Dispute to be effective sources of card advantage. While the deck doesn’t feature a ton of threats, Blood Fountain can bring back dying Myr Enforcers at will. Affinity players are more than willing to grind you into dust if you’re not ready.

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Refurbished Pet Thrives

Ultimately, while Grixis Affinity was still an elite option in the Pauper metagame over the past year, it wasn’t necessarily overly dominant. Other strategies like mono-red aggro and Azorius Gates have remained solid choices themselves. Today, even though MH3 cards have not been legal for too long, there are already fears that Grixis Affinity will completely take over the format.

Cranial Ram may have sparked a lot of discussion at first, but it didn’t take long for Affinity players to turn their attention to another incredible inclusion: the refurbished pet. The Refurbished Familiar does everything Grixis Affinity wants. This helps you win the battle for resources in the long run. He has breakout, which can be important in racing situations. If the opponent has no cards in hand, they still allow you to draw a card when it comes in, making it great in multiples.

In the first 5-0 league dump available on MTGGoldfish where MH3 cards were legal, almost half of the decks featured were Grixis Affinity shells. All nine included a complete playset of Refurbished Familiar. The card simply does so much for one mana.

It should be noted that some Affinity players have also used Sneaky Snacker as another evasive threat that is very useful in wars of attrition. Deadly Dispute, Thoughtcast, and Reckoner’s Bargain all trigger Snacker’s return in conjunction with your draw step, so the card definitely has some appeal. Not being an artifact itself hurts its stock a bit, and it’s unclear if this technology will catch on. Yet, this is yet another option available to Affinity players.

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The root of the problem

The wide range of cards that Grixis Affinity decks can specifically use to perfection that other decks cannot do is part of an overall problem. Over time, more and more Affinity gains were added to the Pauper’s banned list in hopes of diminishing its stock. Back when Atog received the axe, there was hope that Affinity would eventually disappear. Yet as broken as Atog was for Affinity, the deck continued to succeed at a high level almost immediately after the ban.

Many players have argued for some time that those responsible for the banlist should just bite the bullet and ban certain artifact lands. After all, getting rid of enablers can avoid having to ban elite rewards every time others are introduced into the format. Once again, the deck sees a big spike in popularity with the addition of a big (but clearly not broken) payoff, and the hold that artifacts have on the format is on full display.

We think there’s a strong case to be made that MH2’s indestructible artifacts have overstayed their welcome. Before lands like Mistvault Bridge became Affinity staples, hate cards like Gorilla Shaman could reliably distort a game. Since indestructible artifact lands were added to Pauper, it has become exceptionally more difficult to directly hate affinity.

Of course, Dust to Dust and Cast into the Fire can be useful in some cases. Unfortunately, neither are super effective and don’t offer as many benefits. This isn’t to say that beating Affinity is impossible. For example, Affinity in its current state is a bit slow, which combo decks like Poison Storm can exploit.

Moreover, the problem lies in Affinity’s long-standing ability to overcome hatred and repeated bans. Players still have room to adapt to Affinity’s recent surge, so it’s worth keeping an eye out for any metagame shifts in the coming weeks. Regardless, the persistence of the archetype is astonishing. Could Refurbished Familiar’s presence prove to be too much? Only time will tell.

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