Train passengers face price rises and fewer seats after HS2 cancellation

Prices are set to rise on rail routes between London, Birmingham and Manchester due to the cancellation of HS2, I can reveal.

According to documents consulted by IThe UK’s existing rail network is facing an overcrowding crisis due to problems caused by the decision to cancel the northern section of the high-speed railway.

Trains are expected to carry thousands fewer passengers per day, closures to repair the line are expected to increase and fares will likely have to rise to curb demand.

Abandoning the northern section of HS2 will worsen the already poor state of rail on one of the UK’s most important rail lines, policymakers say.

Over the next five years, train capacity between London and Glasgow is expected to fall by 8 per cent due to current government plans.

These plans would see HS2 trains continue on the West Coast Main Line on the existing track, despite the HS2 track terminating at Birmingham New Street.

HS2 trains are capable of carrying around 50 fewer passengers per service than a current Pendolino train, as existing stations north of Birmingham do not have platforms long enough for two trains to be “tethered” together, as had been planned on the dedicated HS2 line.

This would mean there would be around 6,000 fewer seats per day between London and Manchester, 4,000 fewer in Liverpool and 2,000 fewer in Glasgow.

By the planned completion of HS2, there could be 20% more passengers wanting to board the trains than they are built for, posing serious problems for the future of the line.

This includes standing passengers, which is 20 percent more passengers than an already full train, including those standing.

According to industry sources, price increases would be necessary to artificially reduce demand, due to lack of capacity. It is not yet clear to what extent prices are expected to increase.

The precise nature of the price increases will not be known for years, but they would be necessary to avoid serious overcrowding of certain services.

A rail industry source said I it was “so obvious as to be inevitable” that a new rail line linking England’s three main cities would have to be completed, due to capacity problems.

Diagrams seen by I show the route between Wilmslow and Manchester is expected to be “at capacity” with additional capacity issues outside Stafford following the cancellation of HS2 to Manchester.

At present, services between London and Rugby, Coventry to Wolverhampton and Macclesfield to Manchester are already at capacity, with timetable constraints due to track availability across much of the Midlands, North and ‘Scotland.

Seven current and future “blocking points” have been identified that could seriously harm services.

These include major stations such as Manchester Piccadilly, Stafford and Birmingham New Street station, which have been described as “bottlenecks” due to limited platform options.

Problems on the West Coast Main Line are likely to have knock-on effects across the rest of the rail network, with freight trains and smaller commuter trains also seen as being negatively affected, due to congestion on the tracks.

This will likely result in train lines on the West Coast being closed for extended periods, with the current forecast seeing lines having to close for groups of consecutive weekends for several years.

Norman Baker, former railway minister, said: “We are left with a disaster like the worst of all worlds. We have a bleeding section of a high speed rail line between Birmingham and Old Oak Common.

“This will create traffic jams north of Birmingham and cause problems for freight services. There is a desperate need to re-examine the Birmingham-Manchester line.

“Only in Britain would a new high-speed rail line be built, canceled and end up costing people more.”

Darren Caplan, chief executive of the Railway Industry Association, said I that it would be “inevitable” that any future government would have to return to the prospect of restarting the later stages of HS2.

He said: “It is very clear that the UK suffers from a North-South transport connectivity gap which risks holding back economic growth.

“All experts, including the current government’s National Infrastructure Commission, agree that we currently have a capacity problem and this is set to become more acute as demand for travel between London and a host of major cities increases. Cities across the country, including Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, will experience substantial growth by 2050.

“The next UK government, whatever its colour, has a strategic choice over whether it will invest quickly enough to overcome the obstacles to growth. Incredibly, current plans could see thousands fewer train seats between the North and the Midlands, as there are currently no plans to run HS2 trains the full length to the North. There is no easy way to significantly improve the West Coast Mainline, and we have no option to expand the motorway network. We will therefore inevitably return to a new railway line. The only question is if and when we will act.”

The Ministry of Transport said I that no decision had yet been made on tariffs.