GRAHAM: Biden’s debate mistake – NH Journal

If President Biden steps onto the debate stage Thursday night, it will be the worst act of political misconduct since Michael Dukakis climbed into that tank.

Only worse. Dukakis had no way of knowing he would look like Alfred E. Newman making an appearance in “Stripes” during this military-themed photo shoot in 1988. However, the potential disaster of Biden’s debate appearance is obvious to everyone.

Haven’t these people seen “A Beautiful Mind”?

No, not the “crazy guy whose brain is confused by a thousand bizarre conspiracy theories” side. (This is what Team Trump should be watching.)

The “game theory” part.

There are three possible outcomes when Biden steps on that stage to spend 90 minutes sparring with Trump. Two make no sense, and just one could mean the end of Biden’s candidacy.

Outcome number one: Biden wins. Biden’s doctors inject him with just the right mix of B vitamins and political Viagra, Trump releases his inner child, and Biden is declared the winner.

So what?

The not-so-secret side of presidential debates is that they rarely matter. Political pundits love to cite Nixon v. Kennedy and Reagan v. Carter because they are exceptions. They had a significant effect on the outcome of the elections. (And the Nixon v. Kennedy case is questionable.)

Most debates resemble Clinton versus Dole or Obama versus McCain. You remember ?

No one else either.

Biden supporters say if the 81-year-old can recreate his State of the Union magic with a display of energy and enthusiasm, he will dispel concerns about his age and mental acumen.

Fake.

Biden might emerge from the pool in the movie “Cocoon” and do a Circe du Soleil ribbon dance Thursday night, but when he dances his way out shouting “Egyptian President Sissy El-Spacek” a week later, he’ll be back to square one.

The debate lasts only one night. There will be 130 more before Election Day, and each one will be another test for Joe Biden.

Bottom line number two: They both do well. The usual. Another unforgettable presidential debate which allows both candidates to claim victory. How does this help Biden?

Result number three: the “McConnell moment.”

Biden is asked a question, looks at the camera and freezes like the Republican senator from Kentucky. Nothing. 20 painful seconds pass, and the Biden candidacy ends, live on national television in front of 100 million viewers.

OK, that’s not entirely true. If Biden does during the debate what he appeared to do at the “Juneteenth” celebration at the White House or at the Los Angeles fundraiser with Obama last week, his candidacy is not over. His entire presidency is.

Whether or not the Cabinet invokes the 25th Amendment, Biden will no longer be a player in American politics.

And it doesn’t have to be a fixed moment. It could simply be a disjointed and incoherent response that convinces voters that Biden is no longer viable as president.

Ask Republicans about the debate, and some are absolutely certain that this will be Biden’s fate. They are wrong. It’s more likely that Biden will do just fine.

But does any Democrat doubt that an end-of-campaign moment is possible? And not “winning the lottery” possible, but say, a chance in 10?

Why would Biden take this risk? Who would board a train that had a one in ten chance of crashing? Why do this with your political career?

Some experts say that because of concerns about Biden’s age and disability, he has no choice. Absurdity. “As president, I cannot demean the office by debating with a convicted felon.” Do.

Would Biden take a hit for refusing to debate? Of course. But “Take a Hit” is much better than “Back to Delaware!” »

The calculation is simple: for Trump, this debate risks nothing. The only way Trump could surprise anyone on Thursday night would be to show up and act like a gentleman.

But for Biden, this debate risks everything. Thirty seconds of excruciating video and no matter how many times Karine Jean Pierre tweets “Cheap Fake” from the White House press room, her presidency is over.

How can that mean anything?

There’s a good chance that Biden will be fine and the race will return to the swing state work that has been going on for months.

But if he has a campaign-ending moment at this entirely optional event, Biden will have made the most significant political mistake in presidential history.