New Zealand risks sending wrong message to Ukraine

The New Zealand government got its strategic priorities wrong by limiting its representation at the recently concluded Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland to Mark Mitchell, its police minister.

Invitations were sent to heads of government and senior government officials around the world, and more than 90 people attended the summit.

The event, held on June 15-16, aimed to launch the process of advancing a lasting and comprehensive solution to the conflict sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The organizers stressed that this diplomatic initiative is based on the Charter of the United Nations and on an order of international relations based on rules enshrined in institutions like the UN and norms such as multilateralism.

It is not surprising that Russia and China declined to participate, but it is disappointing that the New Zealand government was not represented by its Prime Minister, Foreign Minister or Defense Minister at this important peace summit.

Such a position not only appears to downplay the challenge to New Zealand’s strategic interests posed by the Putin regime’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, but also indicates that it is unclear about the connection between the concerns of Wellington on regional security in the Indo-Pacific and those of Russia. expansionism.

Many Indo-Pacific states are keenly aware that the region’s heavyweights, China and India, remain important partners of Moscow.

China has abstained on crucial UN resolutions condemning Russian involvement in Ukraine and has repeatedly accused NATO and the United States of provoking Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in this country.

Beijing has significantly expanded its trade with Russia since its invasion and continues to deepen its military ties with Moscow.

This support includes the supply of military technologies to Russia, as well as the supply of components to Iran for use in drones sold to Russia.

The Modi government in India also abstained on key UN resolutions criticizing the invasion of Ukraine.

And while tensions between India and China have increased, the Indian government shows no signs of reducing its reliance on spare parts and technical support for Russia’s many weapons platforms. used by the Indian army.

Additionally, India’s trade turnover with Russia has increased by more than 300% since the annexation attempt, including a tenfold increase in discounted Russian oil purchased by India.

At the same time, Indo-Pacific countries are closely monitoring the response of the United States and its allies to the Russian invasion and will undoubtedly be interested in the political will of liberal democracies to support sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

To date, New Zealand governments have provided more than NZ$100 million in humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine.

It is worth emphasizing that Ukraine is a liberal democracy that gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 and also shares New Zealand’s goal of reforming the UN Security Council by limiting or abolishing the right to veto of its five permanent members.

But New Zealand’s support pales in comparison to the scale of aid provided by countries like Australia and Canada, and seems distinctly modest given the possible consequences for the Indo-Pacific region if Putin succeeds. to annex land to Ukraine.

Since 2017, New Zealand governments have become increasingly concerned about China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, and this trend is likely to intensify if Putin’s invasion succeeds.

The best way for New Zealand to help counter the prospect of Chinese belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region would be to significantly improve its diplomatic and military support for Ukraine’s efforts to defeat the Russian incursion.

And if this could only be done by the National-led coalition government in Wellington, ending decades of underinvestment in the defense sector, such a move would be fully justified in the current situation.

If Putin’s troops are defeated or forced to withdraw from Ukraine, it would deal a major blow to Xi Jinping’s leadership and complicate any plans he may have to annex Taiwan. It would also go some way to strengthening the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, which is so clearly in New Zealand’s interests.

Unfortunately, the absence of high-level New Zealand representation at the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland appears to convey the message that Wellington does not fully grasp the connection between his own strategic interests and the current struggle to preserve independence and independence. territorial integrity of Ukraine.

This contribution is adapted from the original originally published in Writing on June 14, 2024.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.

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