Amina Taylor | Get the popcorn ready for the ultimate election show

They say that “politics is show business for ugly people,” and if you’re a political junkie like me, you can see what twisted meaning that makes. As a former entertainment editor, correspondent and magazine editor, I spent more than a decade participating in the latest celebrity machinations; the actors, those who desperately clung to the greasy pole of fame, and those who were catapulted to superstardom or destined for great things.

If you look at the current state of British politics, it’s the equivalent of a massive drama with life-changing twists and turns and casting shakeups. Across the British landscape, instead of awards, it’s politicians who are in the spotlight, and who doesn’t like a good early election following the surprise release of an album (think Carter the cowboybut instead of Beyoncé doing country, the Tory remix sees Prime Minister Sunak abandoning the country’s snap election)?

If, like many of us, you are disillusioned with politics (and politicians) in general, and want to throw it all into one dirty barrel that you are perfectly happy to throw into the sea, you are not alone. However, if there was ever a time when you could see things unfolding in a way that is both dramatic and significant, the 2024 UK election would be a good place to start. The last change of Prime Minister we had saw my mortgage skyrocket and the cost of living skyrocket, so imagine what is at stake during that episode.

When Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a snap election on May 22, even members of his own party were caught out. Many of us political “old heads” thought a fall vote was on the cards. That would give the under-fire Sunak room to maneuver and give the Conservatives time to show the economy is not in free fall. More time would allow Britain to move on from some of its foreign policy mishaps. With Labor leading by more than 20 points in some polls, additional room to maneuver would allow that gap to narrow – one way or another.

WORST RESULT

As in any good television series, the writers at Conservative HQ decided that a major turning point was going to occur. July 4 is now the date. Prepare your ID card and get out. It’s like voting for Britain Got Talent, but without the Botox… and sometimes without the ‘talent’.

Perhaps Sunak would have been wiser to hold fire before firing the election grenade, as a recent poll by Savanta showed a 25-point gap between Labor and the Tories, with some predicting an “electoral burnout” for the Tories .

To add some electric salt to the Tories’ gaping wounds, in some polls Nigel Farage’s Reform Party (aka UKIP, aka Brexit Party, etc.) is ahead of the Conservatives, making them the potential opposition. With Sunak lacking energy as a leading figure, the party he currently leads is likely to return with just 72 MPs out of 650 in the House of Commons – their worst showing in 200 years.

For a variety of reasons, but dare I suggest that the anticipation of electoral defeat is the main reason, 75 Conservative politicians have indicated that they will not stand in the election. These include the Tory “big beasts”: former Liz Truss acolyte and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng; former Prime Minister Theresa May and former puppeteer-in-chief Michael Gove (I may have made that title up), and the smoother-than-butter former Windsor MP Adam Afriyie, who are also ending their term.

Some of those big hitters, who resigned before being unceremoniously rejected by the electorate, denied me that Portillo moment – named after former Conservative minister Michael Portillo, who lost his seat in dramatic fashion to of a Labor newcomer in the 1997 election. His defeat added a new term to the political lexicon “to do a Portillo” or experience a radical “change of fortune”. One day you’re a future Prime Minister, the next you’re on TV waxing lyrical about the joys of trains.

TOP FLOPS

There are a few “big beasts” that I hope will be killed on election night. Pollsters have selected 15 leading Tories, including ministers and secretaries of state, but these are just my favourites for the “Top Flops”.

1. Jacob Rees-Mogg. Representing North East Somerset since 2010 and defending a majority of 14,729. Seeing the smug smile fade from his face in the early hours of July 5th is enough to keep me awake with my coffee and snacks.

2. Jeremy Hunt’s social media channels show he is aware his seat is in danger and is throwing the kitchen sink at the local MP. The former health secretary, chancellor and Tory leadership contender could be riding off into the political sunset.

3. James Cleverly is fighting for his political life, even as he defends a normally untouchable majority of 25,000 votes. Cleverly, the people of Braintree might not be in the mood to reward ministerial mediocrity. Never have the name and reputation of a politician been so contradictory.

4. Grant Shapps is running a veritable “squeaky bum” campaign with a giant target on his back. The parliamentary chameleon once asked football legend Gary Lineker to deliver a rebuke so brutal that I had to reproduce it here: “A bit rich coming from someone who can’t even stick to one name. 4 guysShapps.’ Ouch.

5. It’s hard to choose between Penny Mordaunt and her party colleague Iain Duncan Smith, as they face different challenges, both being serious targets for Labour in their constituencies. Don’t be surprised if they’ve already hired media agents before embarking on their new careers in television.

This election will be the ultimate spectacle, with results that could literally mean life or death for so many. It’s not certain that Britain will wake up on July 5th to the news that we’ve replaced one Conservative government with another, with very little policy difference between them, but it seems like a good bet. A Labour government with an overwhelming majority will have its own problems, and I’ll be happy to reflect on them in a future article.

In the meantime, let’s take comfort in knowing that despite the predictability of the political scenario, there are still some potential disruptors, notably small parties who are getting noticed, independents who are speaking out on issues often ignored by the “big two”. » and a more enlightened electorate who are happy to publicly denounce and disrupt the course of events. status quo. Please join me on election night to grab your popcorn and assorted snacks. If you’re drinking, mate, get your shots ready and drink one for every big name who loses their seat, and hold on tight for Britain: The Sequel.

Amina Taylor is a journalist and radio presenter. She is the former editor-in-chief of Pride magazine and works as a producer, presenter and correspondent with Press TV in London.