Kenya’s youth-led protest movement is at a crossroads as it contemplates its future | Kenya

KEnya’s leaderless, youth-led protest movement finds itself at a crossroads this weekend, bolstered by President William Ruto’s surprise decision on Wednesday to scrap a finance bill containing tax increases. planned taxes even as he mourns those killed in deadly violence the day before.

The movement that has brought thousands of people onto the streets in recent weeks, amid a cost of living crisis that has left many young people desperate, has little precedent in Kenya, where protests have traditionally been led by elites.

Herman Manyora, a Nairobi-based political analyst, said the events of recent days had “enshrined” the feeling among ordinary citizens that they have the power at their disposal and that the government should be forced to engage with them to formulate and implement policies.

“Any government must be seen as responsible and firm, but flexible enough to take into account the views of its citizens,” Manyora said. “The Ruto government seems to be learning this the hard way, and that is why they are giving in and making changes almost at gunpoint from Gen Z.”

The unrest may have been sparked by the finance bill, but frustrations have been brewing for years in a country where economic growth has failed to keep up with population growth and Generation Z – people born between 1997 and 2012 – struggled to find employment.

Elected in 2022 on promises to help low-income people and reduce the cost of living, Ruto has taken a series of unpopular financial policy measures, including removing fuel and maize flour subsidies, introducing a housing tax and proposing a health insurance scheme with higher costs for contributors.

The government and its supporters have said they have no choice: Kenya is at high risk of debt distress, according to the International Monetary Fund, and more than a third of its revenue goes to debt interest payments. The abandoned finance bill aimed to raise $2.7 billion in taxes to reduce the debt burden. It proposes levies on basic goods such as bread and sugar, tax increases on diapers, sanitary pads and mobile money transfers, and a tax on cars.

Kenyans have demanded accountability from the government, arguing that rather than increasing and introducing taxes, the government should tackle corruption and excesses within it.

“We are ready to pay taxes, but we have to see where they go,” said Francis Maina, a digital worker who took part in Tuesday’s protest.

Opposition to the tax bill began online. Young Kenyans used X, TikTok, Instagram and other platforms to vent their frustrations, fund protests and mobilise street demonstrations. Videos were posted in different languages ​​explaining the bill, helping the movement transcend ethnic groups.

The first major street protests took place on June 18, organized under the social media hashtag #RejectFinanceBill2024. In response, lawmakers amended the bill to remove some of the planned tax increases, but the compromise did not go far enough. On June 20, more people came to protest across the country. One person was killed and more than 200 others were injured, and lawyers and rights groups said people suspected of involvement had been kidnapped by security forces.

The violence and disappearances galvanized protesters, until demonstrators broke into parliament and government offices on Tuesday, setting some of them on fire. At least 23 people were killed when police responded with live ammunition and tear gas, according to the Kenya Medical Association.

The next day, Ruto withdrew the bill and made a non-explicit offer for dialogue. This about-face divided the demonstrators: during a discussion on . Ultimately, the march did not take place. Protests took place in several cities, but on a smaller scale than Tuesday.

Anna Otieno, 21, who took part in a protest in Nairobi on Thursday, said her motivation was anger over the backlash earlier this week. “We are almost on the path to a dictatorial country,” she said. “We can’t even assert our rights when we come to demonstrate peacefully. »

Online and on the streets, many of the protesters’ demands are for justice for those killed, the release of those arrested and Ruto’s resignation.

“They killed us. They cannot rule us. That’s what we are saying,” Albert Otieno, a lawyer, said at a protest in Nairobi on Thursday.

How the movement manages to maintain its unity and momentum while pursuing broader goals is a pressing question.

Christine Odera, co-chair of the Kenya Coalition for Youth, Peace and Security, a civil society organization, said it needed to formalize its structures to advance the interests of young people and engage with the government. “If we proceed organically, we risk losing the whole discussion,” she said. “The president said we need to have discussions. We can’t all sit in a stadium and have a conversation. »

Others disagree. Ojango Omondi of the Social Justice Centers Working Group, a group of community activists in a poor neighborhood in Nairobi, said the establishment of national structures and representatives could allow the movement to be corrupted by politicians.

“We don’t need to negotiate anything,” he said. “All we want is better living conditions. All we want is for the leaders to stop using our resources… to fund their lavish lifestyles.”

Reuters contributed to this report