Hezbollah’s plans, Israel’s threats: Is either side ready for war? | Israeli-Palestinian conflict news

Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah is preparing for different scenarios as the low-level conflict between it and Israel threatens to escalate into something larger.

Remarks by officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said Sunday that Israel was ending its operations in Rafah and would redirect its focus toward Lebanon, have fueled speculation that Israel is shifting its military focus from Gaza to Lebanon.

Serious Israeli military action against Lebanon would attract regional and possibly international actors.

Israeli attacks so far have driven nearly 100,000 people from their homes in southern Lebanon and killed at least 435 people, including 349 designated by Hezbollah as its members.

Hezbollah appears to be sticking to its guns, matching Israeli rhetoric with its own, and intensifying its cross-border attacks – which have so far killed 15 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians, according to Israel.

The two men have been trading attacks across the border since the day after Israel launched a war on Gaza on October 7, the day a Hamas-led operation inside Israel killed 1,139 people, according to the AFP news agency.

Ceasefire or bankruptcy

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has repeated in speeches since October that his group would stop its cross-border attacks on Israel only when the latter agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Even though Israel focuses most of its military attention on Lebanon, analysts believe that Hezbollah will remain faithful to its position.

“I don’t think Hezbollah will accept (negotiations) in the absence of a ceasefire (in Gaza),” said Amal Saad, author of two books on Hezbollah. “The war will continue.

“Nasrallah said that they will continue to fight until Hamas is victorious and that if Hamas is weakened and undermined, Hezbollah will not stand idly by,” she said.

“There is a strategic objective here… Hezbollah will not leave Hamas alone.”

The idea of ​​a ceasefire appeared to hit a snag when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline coalition partners demanded a “complete defeat of Hamas” before the war ended.

However, some Israeli officials have expressed doubts about the idea of ​​a total defeat of Hamas, emphasizing that Hamas is an idea and ideas cannot be eradicated.

Military spokesman Daniel Hagari expressed such doubts on June 19, while National Security Council head Tzachi Hanegbi said the same on Tuesday, less than a week later.

Whether tacitly accepting this idea or for other considerations, Israel is now talking about a phase of lesser intensity, in which, it says, its army would continue to target Hamas in Gaza while seeking a political alternative to the group in the enclave.

A less intense war in Gaza would, in theory, allow the focus to shift to Lebanon – even if that would require the Israeli military to face the difficult prospect of a two-front engagement.

Projection of force

For his part, Nasrallah demonstrated the power and firmness of his group.

On June 19, he said his group had more than 100,000 fighters and that many regional armed group leaders had offered to have more fighters join the fight against Israel, offers he rejected because Hezbollah is already “overwhelmed” with cadres.

The day before his speech, Hezbollah released drone footage taken over the Israeli city of Haifa, an implicit threat that the city could be targeted.

Another recent Hezbollah video shows what appears to be a series of targets inside Israel and the Mediterranean Sea.

“Hezbollah is showing and simulating to Israel its options (to expand the) war… (this will make Israel understand) that the repercussions are very costly,” said Imad Salamey, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University.

Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, an island nation that is part of the European Union but not NATO, if it supported Israel in the war.

Cyprus responded that it does not cooperate militarily with Israel in any conflict.

“Since October 8, Cyprus has been a key location where Israeli reservists land and then head to Israel,” Seth Krummrich, a former special forces officer who now works for the risk management company Global Guardian, told Al Jazeera.

Israel has used Cypriot territory for training exercises in the past.

The threat was Nasrallah’s way of signaling “to the European Union to refrain from supporting Israel in any way, which could implicate (its) member states,” Salamey said.

Emergency plans

As both sides intensify their hostilities and lay their cards on the table, Hezbollah will have some contingency plans.

“Hezbollah most likely has a strategy ready in the event of a limited and prolonged war in southern Lebanon and it probably has a strategy prepared in the event of a large-scale war,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph University . in Beirut, said.

A limited war would be what Salamey calls a “low-intensity asymmetric war of attrition” that would bleed “the enemy through inexpensive, effective and efficient skirmishes” – basically a continuation of the current conflict.

A full-scale war could intensify attacks across Lebanon, including on infrastructure like Beirut’s airport, as Israel did in 2006.

Some analysts believe that a limited ground invasion of southern Lebanon is possible, although it would result in heavy losses on both sides.

For Bitar, Hezbollah probably does not want this option. “Hezbollah, as well as the Iranian regime, realize that an escalation would be extremely risky and devastating for Lebanon,” he said.

The intensification of threats and military actions is taking place in parallel with diplomatic negotiations.

U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein recently visited Tel Aviv and Beirut, where he reportedly conveyed Hezbollah messages through Lebanese parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri.

According to unnamed Western diplomats who spoke to Axios, Hochstein told Hezbollah that it would be wrong to assume the United States could prevent Israel from starting a wider war.

At the same time, Hezbollah and Israel are sending messages through French diplomats, Bitar said, seeking “a way out or a strategy to save face.”

If these negotiations could result in “assurance to Israel that Hezbollah’s allies will not be present within a 6-10 km (4-6 mile) radius (of the border) and that they have no intention of using Radwan’s (elite Hezbollah) forces to attack Israel,” Hochstein’s efforts could bear fruit, Bitar said.

The parallel paths of diplomacy and military action are closely linked.

There is, however, an oft-expressed fear that a miscalculation could lead to escalation, with neither side wanting to give their adversaries the opportunity to declare a moral victory.

A war could still be avoided, barring a miscalculation or a political decision by Israel to go ahead based on domestic considerations.

For its part, Hezbollah is sticking to its position of demanding a ceasefire as the only prerequisite for stopping the fighting.

“We are in a situation where, on both sides, domestic political considerations are taking over,” Bitar said.

“Hezbollah is aware that most Lebanese people, including a significant portion of their own supporters, do not want a new war,” he added.

“Both sides are taking these factors into consideration, but we are in an extremely volatile situation and any miscalculation by either side could lead to a full-blown new (escalation of conflict) in the region.”