Europe is not ready for Trump

When Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in 2016, Europe was unified. The continent’s capitals were still reeling from British voters’ decision to leave the European Union just months before, and leaders feared Brexit would trigger a domino effect of other exits. The scars of the European debt crisis and bitter divisions over migration were still fresh.

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United States in 2016 unified Europe. The continent’s capitals were still reeling from British voters’ decision to leave the European Union months earlier, and leaders feared Brexit would trigger a domino effect of other exits. The scars of the European debt crisis and bitter divisions over the migration issue were still fresh.

Trump shook Europeans out of their navel-gazing, reminding them what their union meant: democracy, multilateralism and a rules-based order. With Washington putting an end to this order, then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel – then the undisputed leader of the EU – became the voice of the free world. Europeans knew they could not afford to be divided: their continent was already on fire, with Russia having annexed Crimea and nationalist populism on the rise. Faced with escalating threats and abandoned by Washington, Europeans understood that they had to remain united.

The question haunting Europe today is whether it will be united again if Trump returns to the White House. Of course, Trump is not the only reason why Europe should be unified. Europe and its neighbors are even more on fire today than in 2016. Europe itself is at war, with Russian officials openly declaring that their imperial appetites will not be satisfied by the subjugation of Ukraine . In southeastern Europe, the war between Israel and Hamas is on the brink of a larger conflict. In Africa’s vast Sahel region, European powers and the United States have been ousted as Russia strengthens its grip – with every option open to the Kremlin to impact Europe, including by weaponizing migration.

As Europe turns east, it no longer has any illusions about China’s capacity to become a responsible actor in the liberal order. Unlike in 2016, the EU is no longer so gullible about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s claims that he stands for multilateralism. As Xi’s visits to France, Serbia, and Hungary in May showed, China’s divide-and-rule tactics have become sufficiently blatant for even the most naive Europeans to see through them. Globally, while in 2016 we wondered whether a multipolar world was compatible with multilateralism and the liberal order, it is now clear that both are on life support. Given all the threats to Europe, the unifying effect that Trump had on the EU in 2016 should be exponentially stronger today.

This may be wishful thinking. European democracies are in the throes of political convulsions similar to those in the United States, with right-wing nationalism on the rise. High inflation and weak economic growth have once again put wind in the sails of the hard right. Moreover, European nationalists have changed tactics: they no longer seek to emulate Britain’s disastrous exit but to gut the EU from within. They dominate politics not only in a handful of Eastern European countries – such as Hungary and Slovakia – but have also come to power in Italy and the Netherlands, and may win in Austria later this year. And they are increasingly coordinating in Brussels, asserting their collective weight in European affairs and trying to drive a wedge between the vast majority of conservatives, socialists, liberals and greens who have spearheaded European unity and integration for decades.

Trump 2.0 would enter this much more tense and fractured Europe. This time, more European governments agree with Trump and agree with his denigrating remarks about the EU. Trump would have the same opportunity as Xi to divide and conquer with Europe.

One illustration shows blue missiles with yellow stars, echoing the flag of the European Union.

An illustration shows blue missiles with yellow stars, echoing the flag of the European Union.

The EU is reshaped by war

One illustration shows a burning and half-burned map of Europe, with the Russian flag below the map.

An illustration shows a burning and half-burned map of Europe, with the Russian flag below the map.

One illustration shows a burning and half-burned map of Europe, with the Russian flag below the map.

Europe in geostrategic turmoil

An illustration shows a tank driving over the flag of Ukraine and beginning to overturn the flags of Poland, Estonia and Finland.

An illustration shows a blue aircraft carrier in open water and yellow fighter jets, echoing the stars of the European Union flag, arriving and departing from the carrier.

One illustration shows a blue aircraft carrier in open water and yellow fighter jets, echoing the stars of the European Union flag, arriving and departing from the aircraft carrier.

One illustration shows a blue aircraft carrier in open water and yellow fighter jets, echoing the stars of the European Union flag, arriving and leaving the aircraft carrier.

Deterring Russia is cheaper than war

An illustration shows a map of the United Kingdom below a model of London Bridge in an elevated position. Traffic is stopped as it approaches the elevated bridge, but there is no road on the other side of the structure.

An illustration shows a map of the United Kingdom below a model of London Bridge in the raised position. Traffic is stopped up to the raised bridge, but there is no road on the other side of the bridge.

Britain to reaffirm commitment to Europe

An illustration shows the Euro symbol. The negative space between the two horizontal lines represents a burning match.

An illustration shows the euro symbol. The negative space between the two horizontal lines is a burning match.

An illustration shows the Euro symbol. The negative space between the two horizontal lines represents a burning match.

Europe’s vulnerable economy

An illustration shows a road sign with a podium symbol transforming into a series of arrows pointing in many directions on a red background with gathering clouds.

An illustration shows a road sign with a podium symbol becoming a series of arrows pointing in many directions on a red background with gathering clouds.

Asia sees European confusion

An illustration shows the stars of the European Union flag, some with soldiers inside.

One illustration shows the stars of the European Union flag, some with soldiers inside.

Who will continue to fight for Europe?

The fractures extend across vast swathes of European politics. As nationalists wield their growing power – and perhaps ally themselves with Trump – it will be difficult for the EU to agree on ambitious moves on defense, climate, energy, technology, and EU enlargement, even as the war in Ukraine and other crises make these policies increasingly urgent.

Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the EU, predicted that the continent’s union would grow through the crisis. So far, this statement has proven true, as various political and economic upheavals since 1945 have pushed Europeans to build an ever closer union. Another Trump term – coupled with a real crumbling of the transatlantic bond at a time of growing threats to Europe – could be the crisis that breaks the EU’s back.