Marine Le Pen seeks majority as rival groups unite to stop her

(Bloomberg) — Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is battling for an absolute majority in the final round of French legislative elections on Sunday, as rival parties maneuver to keep the far-right party out of power.

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President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group and the broad left-wing New Popular Front alliance withdrew their candidates from 215 second-round elections with more than two candidates to avoid splitting the vote to the detriment of the far right, according to a tally by the newspaper Le Monde.

In response, the National Rally is seeking allies to help it secure a majority in the 577-seat lower house of parliament to enable it to implement a programme that includes reversing the government’s pension reform, cutting VAT and eliminating some aid to foreigners.

“Yes, we will have an absolute majority,” National Rally President Jordan Bardella told Le Figaro in an interview published Wednesday. “The only project and ambition carried by all my opponents in this election is to prevent me from winning.”

Sunday’s election forces voters to decide whether they prefer Macron’s pro-business, pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine vision for France or Le Pen’s agenda of slashing immigration, moving away from European Union rules and reversing some of Macron’s pension reforms.

To win the 289 seats he needs in the National Assembly, Bardella said he was ready to reach out to the center-right Republicans who “cannot legitimately be satisfied with seeing a coalition in power” that includes Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise. Some Republicans, led by Eric Ciotti, have already formed an alliance with the National Rally.

“If I need to expand my majority, I will do it,” Bardella said. He had already said he would only accept an invitation to become prime minister if his party and its allies won an absolute majority. The president traditionally appoints the position from among members of the largest parliamentary group.

Macron dissolved the National Assembly earlier this month and called a snap vote after his group was defeated in European Parliament elections, a move that initially led to the worst bond rout since the sovereign debt crisis and wiped nearly $200 billion off the value of stocks.

French 10-year bonds edged higher after posting their best daily performance in two weeks on Tuesday. The risk premium that the debt offers over its German counterparts was little changed after hitting its lowest closing level since June 13.

French stocks rebounded on Wednesday, with the CAC 40 gaining 1%, led by banking stocks such as Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Crédit Agricole SA. The benchmark index is still down about 5% since the election was announced.

“In recent days, the market has been excited about the possibility that France could end up with a hung parliament,” Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, said on Bloomberg Television. “A hung parliament means the country won’t be able to make any real further progress in reducing its budget deficit, which means it’s opening itself up to further trouble with Brussels.”

The National Rally and its allies dominated the first round of voting last Sunday, taking 33.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won 28%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition won 20.8%.

Campaign promises made by different parties vary dramatically in cost, with the left-wing alliance coming out on top largely thanks to its promise to lower the retirement age, according to a new analysis by the Institut Montaigne think tank.

The study found that the left-wing New Popular Front’s promises would cost nearly €125 billion ($135 billion) in additional funding per year once all measures were implemented. The far-right National Rally’s plans amount to nearly €55 billion, while Macron’s party and its allies would incur additional spending over time of nearly €15 billion.

The National Rally is the only party with a reasonable chance of winning an absolute majority, which means that if it fails to do so, there will be a hung parliament, in which Macron will still dictate foreign policy and will have to compromise on a prime minister, who will lead domestic policy.

According to Le Monde, 132 left-wing candidates and 83 from the Macron group withdrew from the three- and four-round elections. The Interior Ministry is due to publish a final count on Wednesday.

“If we have succeeded in what we have done with the withdrawals, it is precisely the proof that it is possible to prevent a victory of the extreme right,” declared French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on France Inter radio.

Former Socialist President François Hollande, speaking on Franceinfo radio, warned that the risk of a National Rally majority had been “minimized but not avoided.”

–With assistance from Blaise Robinson, Rachel Evans, Craig Stirling and Naomi Tajitsu.

(Updates with markets in eighth and ninth paragraphs.)

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