French elections: left-wing coalition poised for surprise victory over Macron and Le Pen

What will follow is uncertain.

In his first reaction, RN leader Jordan Bardella called the cooperation between anti-RN forces, known as the “Republican Front,” a “shameful alliance” that he said would paralyze France.

Bardella called the local electoral pacts that allowed the left and the centrists to avoid dividing the anti-RN vote an “alliance of dishonor.”

He said this had thrown “France into the arms of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far left.”

People react after the second round of the French election results at Place de la Republique in Paris, France on Sunday. Photo: EPA-EFE — People react after the results of the second round of the French elections at the Place de la République in Paris, France, on Sunday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Le Pen said the far-right’s victory in France was only postponed.

“The tide is rising. It didn’t rise high enough this time, but it continues to rise and, as a result, our victory has only been delayed,” Marine Le Pen, who is expected to run again in the 2027 presidential election, told TF1, adding that she refused to be “disappointed by a result where we double the number of deputies.”

Projections made by major pollsters on Sunday showed the NFP would be the largest bloc in the new National Assembly with 177 to 198 seats, Macron’s alliance with 152 to 169 seats and the RN with 135 to 145 seats.

This means that no group is even close to the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority and it is still unclear how a new government can be formed.

President Emmanuel Macronwho has not yet spoken publicly about the projections, is calling for “caution and analysis of the results,” said an aide, asking not to be named.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers a speech in Paris, France on Sunday. Photo: Reuters — French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal delivers a speech in Paris on Sunday. Photo: Reuters

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced Sunday that he would present his resignation to Macron on Monday morning. If his resignation is rejected, he added, he is prepared to stay in office “as long as duty demands,” ahead of the Paris Olympics, which are set to begin in three weeks.

There were cheers and tears of relief at the NFP rally in Paris as the budget forecasts were announced. At the Greens headquarters, activists cheered and hugged each other.

“I am relieved. As a French-Moroccan, a doctor, an environmental activist, what the far right proposed to do as a government was madness,” said Hafsah Hachad, 34.

At the RN party headquarters, there was a stunned silence, jaws clenched and tears streaming as young party members checked their phones.

A protester hold a French flag as people gather at the Place de la Republique after partial results in the second round of the early French elections, in Paris, France on Sunday. Photo: Reuters — A protester holds a French flag as people gather at Place de la République after partial results of the second round of French early elections, in Paris, France, on Sunday. Photo: Reuters

A victory for the NFP risks alarming investors worried about the state of France’s public finances. The group has promised a major increase in public spending, a hike in the minimum wage and a lowering of the retirement age, measures that would provoke a major clash with the government. European Union.

Even if the group does not have the votes to govern alone, it is likely to demand new spending commitments from Macron to form a new administration.

Those projections partly justify Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament after Marine Le Pen’s party suffered a landslide defeat last month. He was widely criticized for the move after his party finished third in the first round of voting last week, in which Le Pen took the lead.

French Socialist Party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said on Sunday that Macron must admit defeat and demanded that the left be allowed to form a government.

Mélenchon said the French left was “ready to govern.” “Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario.

“Its components, the united left, rose to the historic occasion and foiled in their own way the trap set for the country,” he said.

Macron is currently analyzing the latest election results and will wait for Parliament to have a global vision of the situation before taking the necessary decisions, the French presidency said on Sunday. “The president, as guarantor of our institutions, will respect the choice of the French people,” the presidency added.

French President Emmanuel Macron greets supporters after voting in the second round of legislative elections in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France on Sunday. Photo: Pool via AP — French President Emmanuel Macron waves to supporters after voting in the second round of parliamentary elections in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, on Sunday. Photo: Pool via AP

Macron dissolved the lower house nearly four weeks ago and called an early vote after his group was defeated in the European elections.

Last week, there was a frantic effort to activate the Republican Front, a mechanism by which the major parties strategically withdraw candidates from certain constituencies to bolster anti-National Rally votes. Macron’s party withdrew 76 candidates from runoffs where they had little chance of winning, to avoid splitting the anti-Le Pen vote. The New Popular Front withdrew 130.

France The country cannot afford a big spending increase to appease disgruntled voters, as the government is already struggling to contain the budget deficit. Last month, the European Commission placed the country under a special procedure for violating deficit rules, which could make it difficult to curb efforts to implement ambitious spending plans while complying with EU rules.

French Rassemblement National (RN) far-right party’s leader Marine Le Pen in Paris on Sunday. Photo: AFP — Marine Le Pen, the president of the National Rally (RN) in Paris, Sunday. Photo: AFP

The euro fell on Sunday after exit polls showed a hung parliament. The single currency was down 0.3 percent at $1.08, although volumes remained thin as early trading in Asia got underway. The euro also fell against sterling and the yen.

France’s CAC 40 index has posted the worst performance among major European stock indexes since Macron called snap elections last month, while at the height of the sell-off a measure of bond market risk hit its highest level since the sovereign debt crisis.

Stocks rebounded last week after the first round of voting eased concerns about a far-right government, and general market stress eased.

The CAC 40, however, remains around 4% below the levels observed before the announcement of the early elections on June 9. The premium demanded by investors to hold French government bonds relative to German bonds amounts to less than 70 basis points, below the peak of 86 basis points observed after the announcement of the elections, but well above the level of 50 basis points observed in early June.

Additional reporting by Bloomberg and Agence France-Presse