NATO allies pledge long-term support for Ukraine, but stop short of membership

Should Ukraine be promised a “bridge” or, better yet, “an irreversible path”? The country’s allies are still looking for the right terms before the NATO summit scheduled for Washington from July 9 to 11. It will mark a historic anniversary: ​​the 75th anniversary of the Alliance, in a tense political context in the United States. The threat of Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025 darkens the future. But the main immediate concern of the 32 members is to agree on the terms of their commitment to Ukraine, still engaged in a defensive war against Russia.

According to a senior US official, the goal is to “institutionalize the long-term trajectory” of Ukraine by aiding its military, strengthening its air defenses and promoting the development of its military-industrial base. The goal is to ensure that Ukraine is ready to join NATO on “day one,” when there is a “consensus” among members on the subject.

On Friday, July 5, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that alliance members have spent $43 billion a year on military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war. Ukraine’s supporters hope that this effort will continue until 2025. However, Trump has promised that if he wins the election, he will bring peace between Ukraine and Russia during the presidential transition period, that is, even before he enters the White House.

Biden ‘blocks’ membership

At the Washington summit, a long-term NATO mission should be set up to coordinate this aid to kyiv. It would organize, among other things, arms deliveries and training. But this initiative is more about logistics than geopolitics. The United States remains opposed to Ukraine joining NATO in the short or medium term, and to any form of binding timetable.

“Joe Biden is clearly blocking accession, which is not a position shared by everyone in his administration,” said Tara Varma, an expert at the Brookings Institution, a US think tank. “The president sees things through the prism of the Cold War, but it’s not just about the past. In reality, several Cold Wars are intertwined today and the fear of escalation among Americans is not just about Russia. There is the one between the United States and China, and between the Europeans and Russia. Added to this is the fact that Moscow is working with North Korea and Iran, while benefiting from the support of Beijing.”

In the summer of 2023, the White House was caught off guard by unprecedented public pressure from the Baltic states, particularly Lithuania, for Ukraine to join NATO on the eve of the alliance’s summit in Vilnius. Accustomed to these Eastern Front countries aligning with the United States and relying on Washington for their security, the administration expressed exasperation. This exasperation was exacerbated when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the language in his country’s press release for NATO membership absurd, stating that it would happen only “when allies agree and conditions are met.”

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