Political Analyst Makes Bold Predictions About Trump and 2024 Election Outcome

Ever since the Democrats made the big leap from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris, the media has been trying to make people believe that this is all normal and that there is huge enthusiasm for Harris.

This is not normal, and any surge in support Harris enjoys is likely nothing more than a sugar rush that will quickly fade as voters remember her record and her personality.

James Piereson is a political scientist and analyst at the Manhattan Institute. He recently wrote a column comparing Kamala Harris to the unsuccessful 1988 presidential candidate Michael Dukakis, but one of the most fascinating passages in the column is a passage where he predicts the outcome of the 2024 election.

Piereson writes in The New Criterion (emphasis added):

Kamala Harris is enjoying just such a moment as she builds support ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Democrats and their media allies are busy presenting her as a fresh face (which she is not) and a young candidate (also questionable) who will electrify the nation, galvanize women and minority voters, and crush Donald Trump in the fall campaign…

The honeymoon won’t last very long. Trump will succeed in painting Harris as an out-of-touch San Francisco leftist, just as Bush painted Dukakis as a Massachusetts liberal. Trump will find plenty of room to maneuver in this campaign, because there is hardly a left-wing cause she hasn’t embraced…

Despite today’s euphoria, Trump will win the election by a six-point margin (49% to 43%), winning 339 electoral votes, including all the so-called swing states, as well as the Democratic-leaning states of Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. Republicans will gain three or four seats in the Senate and perhaps twenty seats in the House, giving them a secure majority in both chambers. This will give Trump the margins he needs to implement a good part of his program in 2025 and 2026.

This column is currently one of the most-read articles on Real Clear Politics, and for good reason. Piereson makes remarkable arguments based on history and research.