Three things to know before Venezuela’s presidential election

Venezuelans are preparing to participate in what could be the most important presidential election the South American nation has seen in more than a decade.

Voters on Sunday have a chance to elect a new leader who could end the long-running Chavista regime, a socialist-inspired political movement turned authoritarian that began nearly three decades ago with the election of Hugo Chavez and continued under his protégé Nicolás Maduro.

Maduro, who is seeking a third term, has threatened to “massacre” his country if he is not elected, prompting the United States to warn him of the need to hold fair elections without intimidation or repression.

Maduro is facing ten presidential candidates, among whom Edmundo González is considered the candidate most likely to beat him.

González, a former diplomat, was largely unknown to Venezuelans until he officially entered the presidential race in May to replace opposition leader María Corina Machado. The Maduro regime had barred him from running in the presidential election due to allegations of fraud and corruption that many saw as an attempt to disrupt legitimate elections.

Machado, a conservative and former lawmaker, had gained enormous popularity after winning his primary in October – and his support for González made him a viable opponent against Maduro.

As concerns over free and fair elections in Venezuela persist, here are three things to know about what’s at stake.

What is behind the crisis in Venezuela?

The prolonged economic, social and political crisis in Venezuela has plunged millions of people into poverty, creating the largest displacement crisis in the world. An estimated 8 million Venezuelans have migrated to other parts of Latin America, the United States and other countries.

Venezuela, once economically prosperous, is home to the world’s largest oil reserves. The financial mismanagement of this sector during Maduro’s term, compounded by the strict sanctions imposed by the United States in 2019, triggered a domino effect that led to the collapse of the Venezuelan economy and the beginning of a humanitarian crisis that has left the population without access to food, health care and other basic needs. More than 80% of the Venezuelan population lives in poverty.

In this context, polls have begun to show that support for Maduro and the Chavista regime is crumbling. This change has revived hope among Venezuelans who see Sunday’s elections as “the last opportunity for change in the country,” according to polls published by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas.

Opposition parties and leaders have exploited this sentiment to rally their supporters, intensifying their calls for the restoration of democracy.

Why is opposition leader Machado not on the ballot?

Since winning the primaries in October, Machado has become the driving force behind Venezuela’s opposition movement.

Machado gained popularity after promising to rebuild Venezuela’s economy in the hope that many people who fled will be able to return.

His voter mobilization efforts have succeeded in breaking through deep-rooted political apathy, the result of years of government repression by a regime known for arresting dissidents and suppressing protests.

But Venezuela’s Supreme Court formally barred Machado from holding office in January, citing fraud and corruption charges she has denied. She was unable to run in Sunday’s election.

In May, González became the opposition’s surrogate candidate. The two men campaigned together until Thursday, when the presidential campaign officially ended.

Venezuela’s main opposition party says more than three dozen opposition activists have gone into hiding or been detained since January.

During the electoral cycle, Maduro retained control of the legislature, the military and the national electoral council, as well as the judiciary, much of the media and violent paramilitary gangs.

Will Venezuela’s election results be accepted?

That remains to be seen.

The United States and even some of Maduro’s allies in Brazil and Colombia have urged him to accept the election results after his threats of a “bloodbath.”

“We support peaceful elections, which we hope will take place on Sunday,” White House spokesman John Kirby said at a regular news briefing in Washington. “Any political repression and violence is unacceptable.”

While many Venezuelans are eager for a legitimate election and a chance to vote to remove Maduro, they also fear that he will find other ways to hold on to power. If Maduro were to leave office, he could seek to negotiate an exit deal with the opposition to avoid being prosecuted in an international court for crimes against humanity, The New York Times reported. At the same time, few Venezuelans expect the election to result in Maduro’s ouster.

Polls are scheduled to open at 6 a.m. Sunday and close at 6 p.m. local time. People waiting in line before polls close will be allowed to vote. Results could be known as early as Monday morning.

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