Harris’s “Goldilocks” Economic Agenda

The news

Kamala Harris will signal Thursday night whether her campaign will move away from Joe Biden’s unpopular economic leadership — or try to take credit for a record that has delivered robust growth despite signs of waning voter confidence.

Major polls since she launched her campaign last month paint a mixed picture: the Washington Post-ABC poll gives Donald Trump the lead on the economy, but the Financial Times says she has closed the gap.

Several former Biden aides told Semafor that Harris’s early plans suggest she is trying to show that she is different from Biden — without significantly deviating from his core agenda. A Harris presidency could build on Biden’s agenda while revamping it in relatively narrow areas, like the child tax credit and affordable housing.

“This is not the time to do super-surprising things when you’re part of an administration that’s had some economic success,” said Kimberly Clausing, who served as a senior Treasury Department official during the Biden administration. “We’re really in a kind of sweet spot right now, not too hot and not too cold.”

Still, the high degree of initial overlap between Harris’s and Biden’s economic plans offers Trump a chance to try to tie her to the sitting president’s relative unpopularity, if he can stay true to his message. And while her attempt to bolster the child tax credit and housing assistance reinforces Harris’s goal of emphasizing families’ financial security, her biggest attempt at breaking with Biden—on high food prices—has been the hardest to pull off.

The Democratic platform includes a series of signature economic priorities endorsed by party officials before Biden stepped down last month and presented as a “vision” for the party’s future. Semafor has asked the Harris campaign to reaffirm elements of the DNC platform as part of its own agenda and has not received an official response.

Based on what Harris and her campaign have endorsed, here’s a guide to what she supports and what she continues to consider.

What she supported

A $6,000 child tax credit for newborns:

Harris endorsed a massive expansion of the child tax credit for first-year children, as well as reinstating the Biden-era child tax credit that gave parents monthly cash payments of up to $300 a month. The Harris credit would cost $117 billion a year and reduce the child poverty rate by 31%, according to calculations by Max Ghenis of Policy Engine. During its brief existence, until Senate Republicans and Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin blocked an expansion, Biden’s child tax credit lowered the child poverty rate and brought the U.S. into line with Germany.

$25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time home buyers:

Harris wants federal aid for home buyers to more than double the $10,000 Biden has requested. The measure is intended to provide financial relief, though some economists worry it could spur demand too much at a time when housing supply is scarce. “In many places, it’s too hard to build, and that’s driving up prices,” Harris said in an economic speech Friday.

Fight against rising rents:

Harris has backed two bills aimed at keeping rental prices low. One measure, championed by Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown and Ron Wyden, among others, would prohibit an investor who buys 50 or more single-family rental homes from receiving tax breaks.

The other bill would ban rental property owners from using a company that helps coordinate rental prices. The Biden administration is poised to end that practice: The Justice Department is preparing a lawsuit against a software company that accuses it of collaborating to help landlords set rental prices.

Before giving up his position as head of the Democratic ticket, Biden supported a 5% cap on rent increases nationwide.

Biden’s $5 trillion tax plan:

Harris’ campaign has endorsed Biden’s tax increases in full, including a “billionaires tax” on the income of the super-rich who claim more than $100 million in assets; taxing capital gains at the same rate as wage income; and eliminating the stepped-up tax base that currently allows tycoons like Elon Musk to transfer vast fortunes to their heirs without paying tax on the accumulated value — as long as the assets aren’t sold.

Projects to combat rising food prices:

Harris is seeking to crack down on “price gouging” in the food and grocery industry by proposing to give the Federal Trade Commission the power to penalize large companies for “excessive” price hikes — without specifying the circumstances that would trigger that regulatory power. Her idea has drawn skepticism and some direct criticism from economists who say new federal restrictions on price increases will lead to shortages of goods. The proposal has also sparked a barrage of attacks from the Republican Party.

Elimination of taxes on tips:

Harris has thrown her weight behind a proposal to eliminate taxes on tips. It’s an idea Trump first floated in an apparent effort to win over service and hospitality workers in the swing state of Nevada. Trump’s campaign hasn’t said how his version would be structured, though, while Harris’ campaign says tips would still be subject to payroll taxes, preserving a major source of funding for Social Security and Medicare. A Yale Budget Lab analysis suggests that tipped workers make up just 2 percent of the U.S. workforce.

What she could support but has not yet done

Extension of health insurance:

The DNC platform calls for expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision and hearing care. This is a provision championed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, but it was dropped during the Build Back Better bill discussions in late 2021.

Child care subsidies:

Biden’s latest budget would cap child care costs at 7% of an eligible family’s annual income, a level similar to the House-passed Build Back Better Act.

12 weeks of nationwide paid family and medical leave:

The DNC platform and the White House’s fiscal 2025 budget proposal both include support for a 12-week paid leave measure. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate, said earlier this month that passing a national paid leave law should be the top legislative priority if Democrats win control of the White House and Congress in November. “We’re the last nation on Earth that’s not doing this,” Walz told The New York Times’ Ezra Klein.

Closing Medicaid Coverage Gaps:

Harris has already campaigned with Biden this year to close the coverage gap in the 10 Republican states that still haven’t expanded Medicaid. An estimated 2.8 million people earn too much to qualify for Medicaid but not enough to qualify for government subsidies.

Removal of the ceiling on taxable income for Social Security:

The DNC platform says Democrats will ask the wealthiest Americans to “pay their fair share,” a reference to lifting the cap on payroll taxes that currently sits at $168,000 (adjusted for inflation each year). Biden pursued the change in 2020, but it has not been included in his White House budgets in subsequent years. Progressives in Congress see it as the most effective way to extend the program’s 75-year lifespan.

Minimum wage of $15:

Harris has pledged to raise the federal minimum wage, which has not changed since 2009, to $7.25 an hour. She has not said how high that minimum wage would be. The Democratic National Committee platform, however, says Democrats “will continue to press Congress to raise it to at least $15 for all Americans.”

Notable

• Harris’ Plan to Raise Prices There would be no specific price triggers and it would likely apply only to emergency situations, “people familiar with” the proposal told The New York Times.
• Cryptocurrency may have friends in a Harris administration, according to a campaign adviser who said growing digital assets would be a priority, Bloomberg reports.