Are the Nats ready to get back into the competition, or are they still a year away?

2024 season: Eliminated on September 14, 4th in the NL East

Let’s take a look at the Washington Nationals’ 2024 season, the questions the team needs to answer this winter, and the early outlook for 2025.

Learn more: MLB 2024 Offseason Previews: White Sox, Rockies, Angels and More

Things that went well

The Nationals’ rebuild took a turn in 2024. While the team didn’t make a major improvement in its final record, the Nats were one game below .500 on June 21 and were six games out of a wild-card spot at the All-Star break. They also made progress with their run differential.

The best part about Washington’s improvement is that it’s mostly due to the ascension of players who will be around for years to come. C.J. Abrams made his first All-Star appearance as he continued to build on his breakout 2023 season. Luis Garcia Jr. followed four mediocre campaigns with a big step forward. And James Wood posted solid numbers in his first year after being promoted on July 1.

On the pitching side, Jake Irvin made big improvements in his sophomore season, while Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz had solid rookie campaigns.

Things that went wrong

With so many pitchers taking a step forward, MacKenzie Gore stands out as one of the guys who didn’t. The lefty can use an unlucky BABIP and strike rate as a partial excuse, but the fact is that after a strong start to the season, Gore struggled throughout the summer.

Keibert Ruiz stands out as the position player who is a key part of the team’s future, but he’s taken a step back in 2024. Like Gore, Ruiz has had to deal with an unfortunate BABIP, but he’s also responsible for notable drops in his barrel rate and average exit velocity. To be fair to Ruiz, despite his first-half struggles, he looked more like himself at the plate after the All-Star break.

Overall, Washington could have done a lot better on the field, especially for a team with a lot of athleticism. The club was among the league leaders in errors, and the Nats also had poor results in advanced defensive metrics such as UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved).

Off-season projects

As is the case with most teams on the rise, the key members of this year’s improvement are all under contract for 2025 and beyond. Wood, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews, who made their late-season debuts, will form a trio of young, dynamic outfielders. García and Abrams will cover the center infield, and Ruiz will be the man behind the plate. José Tena flashed potential in a late-season audition at third base, and while he lacks power, Juan Yepez can hit for average as a first baseman.

If management adds a veteran hitter, first base is the most obvious place to upgrade. The team could spend big money on a middle-of-the-line presence like Pete Alonso or Christian Walker. However, this team on the rise may not be ready to hand out massive contracts to players who are past their prime.

The 2025 rotation already has four members, with Irvin, Gore, Parker and Herz. The organization will finally be free of Patrick Corbin’s six-year, $140 million contract, which opens up the possibility of adding a starting pitcher, and there will be ace-level pitchers available, including Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Like most teams, the Nats could also bolster their relief corps. Kyle Finnegan has been better than expected as the team’s stopper, but after trading Hunter Harvey at the trade deadline, Washington needs another high-leverage arm.

Overall, the Nationals need to decide if this team is ready to compete or if they need another year of growth before adding expensive free agents to fill holes in their roster.

Prospects on the horizon

Washington had a formidable farm system entering the 2024 season, but the promotions of Wood and Crews made it a more average group. Still, it’s good news for the organization that its two star outfielders reached the major leagues in time.

The best remaining prospect is Brady House, a first-round pick in the 2021 draft who arrived in Triple-A over the summer. House hasn’t lit up the league, which is a good sign he needs more experience before making his MLB debut. Still, his presence, along with Tena’s, is reason enough for the organization to think twice before agreeing to a long-term deal with a veteran third baseman.

Cade Cavalli made one start for the Nats in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He missed the entire 2023 season and has thrown very few innings this year, making him a talent question mark for 2025. A first-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Cavalli will start next season in Triple-A but could return to the major leagues by the summer. The organization’s other top prospects, including 2024 first-round pick Seaver King, are expected to debut in 2026 or beyond.

Goals for 2025

The Nats should be aiming for their first winning record since winning the World Series in 2019. And with three wild-card spots available, having a winning record should also mean a challenge for a playoff spot.

With the addition of a few key free agents and the continued development of young players like Wood, Abrams and Crews, this team could strike fear into the hearts of the top franchises in the National League. At the same time, free agent failures sometimes stall an organization, as we saw with Corbin. For that reason, Washington could choose to wait another year before making larger financial commitments.

One thing is for sure: The Nats will not back down from their goal to make the playoffs. The National League East is one of the toughest divisions in baseball, as the Phillies and Braves should have solid rosters for several years, and the Mets have some pieces in place and an owner willing to maintain a high payroll.

Focus on fantasy

With his ability to rack up home runs and steals, Abrams has the perfect skill set to become a fantasy star and will be a top-30 pick in the 2025 draft. Wood will also be a coveted asset, as his successful debut at age 21 will generate excitement about his ability to quickly become one of the best hitters in baseball. García will be an attractive mid-round option who needs to improve his ability to hit lefties before moving higher up the fantasy rankings. Irvin will also be a mid-round pick, and opinions will likely be split on Crews, given his status as an elite prospect and limited major league experience.

Manager Dave Martinez saw the baserunning potential of his young lineup and let the Nats run wild all season. Fantasy managers love that philosophy, which will add to the 2025 appeal of Abrams, Young, Wood, Garcia and Crews in roto formats.