Link between immigration and fentanyl-related deaths is weak

Former President Donald Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance have brought up the issue of fentanyl poisoning at nearly every campaign stop. But they can’t help but link the crisis to immigration, and to be frank, immigrants are not the cause of these deaths.

A new study from the Cato Institute, using data obtained through a Freedom of Information request, debunks the alleged link between immigration and fentanyl trafficking. The dataset shows that between 2019 and 2024, 80% of those arrested with fentanyl at ports of entry were U.S. citizens: 7,598 of the 9,473 cross-border smugglers.

Focusing on seizures at ports of entry is critical, as 88 percent of all fentanyl was seized at ports of entry between 2015 and 2024. Only 8 percent was seized by Border Patrol, primarily during vehicle stops. These numbers are consistent with surveys by the Drug Enforcement Administration, Customs and Border Protection, and the Office of National Drug Policy, which show that drug traffickers are primarily using ports of entry rather than illegal routes.

Drug trafficking organizations prefer U.S. citizens for trafficking because they have the right to enter the United States and are less likely to be questioned by port authorities for attempting to enter. Data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission confirms this: from 2018 to 2023, U.S. citizens accounted for 80% of drug traffickers convicted in the Southwest border districts.

Because of the high probability of detection during illegal crossings, smugglers prefer legal crossings. CBP estimates that it intercepts only 2.98 percent of cocaine at ports of entry, compared to more than 75 percent of immigrants crossing illegally. Even if Customs and Border Protection overestimates its effectiveness at stopping illegals, it would make no sense to try to smuggle drugs this way.

Some might argue that we can’t see the drugs that are escaping. That’s true, but Border Patrol arrests provide a substantial sample from which to draw reasonable conclusions about this flow. Between October 2018 and June 2024, Border Patrol made 8.5 million arrests and 1,341 fentanyl seizures. It’s likely that half of those were U.S. citizens stopped at vehicle checkpoints.

Fentanyl trafficking among illegal immigrants crossing borders is rare, occurring in less than 1 in 12,000 cases. That’s not to say it never happens, but even if we invested billions to stop it, it wouldn’t solve the real problem we’re trying to solve: fentanyl-related deaths. Cartels can easily increase their supply in other ways.

Eliminating immigration will not solve the fentanyl crisis, as overdose deaths have increased during years of immigration restrictions. In 2020, when immigration was significantly reduced, fentanyl overdose deaths increased by 56%, and by another 22% in fiscal year 2021, due to the extended restrictions. In 2020, cartels switched from heroin to fentanyl, which is 50 times more potent, allowing them to meet demand with fewer crossings.

As Professor Ben Feldmeyer of the University of Cincinnati recently reported in the journal Criminology According to the survey results, greater immigration is more often associated with a decrease in overdoses. This is partly because immigrants are more likely to abstain from drug use. As a result, noncitizens account for about 1.4% of overdoses, even though they make up more than 7% of the U.S. population. It may also be because immigration improves the economy in these areas.

Improved detection technologies at ports are also not the answer. Marijuana has been smuggled for decades, despite being easier to detect. Seizing more marijuana will not impact the availability of fentanyl unless the cartels fail to supply more to replace it, which history shows is not the case. For example, while marijuana seizures have increased as border enforcement has expanded, availability has remained unchanged and its potency has increased.

Moreover, even more potent synthetic opioids, such as Nitazene, are already emerging in the United States and could replace fentanyl, requiring fewer smuggling trips and resulting in even more deaths. In the unlikely event that Mexican smuggling routes are closed, traffickers would simply turn to other methods, such as sending packages through the mail or producing them domestically. Wherever there is demand, there will be supply.

The marijuana experience proves that the only way to stop smuggling is to reduce demand for the cartel’s product. Of course, no one is going to legalize fentanyl for nonmedical use. But there are many effective solutions beyond that: legalizing fentanyl test strips to allow users to choose not to use it, removing restrictions on legal alternatives like methadone treatment, allowing doctors to treat pain and addiction without legal risks, and reclassifying diamorphine for therapeutic use. Effective drug policies in other countries have worked better, and none of them have used immigration restrictions to do so.

The obsession with immigration as the solution to the fentanyl problem distracts from real solutions. Politicians’ focus on immigration gives cartels even more power to flood the market with fentanyl, causing the deaths of thousands of Americans. It’s time to end this distraction and implement policies that reduce demand and save lives.

David J. Bier is director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute.

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