Air Force Prepares for New Nuclear War Scenarios

The Air Force is planning a tabletop exercise to assess U.S. readiness to respond to a wide range of nuclear-related scenarios as part of a broader effort to prepare for them, a service chief said Wednesday.

“What if, God forbid, there was a use of low-yield nuclear weapons in Europe tomorrow?” Lt. Gen. Andrew J. Gebara, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, said at the Air & Space Forces Association conference in Washington, D.C. “Or what if there was a nuclear demonstration, or a nuclear test? What if we had to adapt INDOPACOM’s regional warfight because a nuclear power had a red line (meaning) we couldn’t fly in certain areas?”

“These are the kinds of things that our fighters need to understand from the beginning. It doesn’t have to be done just at the presidential level without further discussion,” Gebara said.

This represents a radical shift in the way militaries have traditionally discussed the possibility of nuclear war. In the past, intelligence or analysis about the effects of these weapons on a given conflict was kept at the highest possible, “strategic” level. This reflected an era when two major powers were engaged in a largely conventional arms race, with “rules” or at least known principles of play. It does not reflect the modern role of nuclear weapons in conflicts, which can involve many more actors and delivery systems for nuclear effects.

“When I was younger, at the end of the Cold War, the biggest threat we faced was 1,000 intercontinental ballistic missiles flying over the North Pole without warning. How do you deal with that?” Gebara said. “It’s horrible to imagine. But it’s actually a pretty simple tactical problem. There are only two or three things you can do in a situation that serious.”

Today, intercontinental ballistic missiles seem obsolete compared to new types of missiles and nuclear weapons, some of which do not even seem like weapons at first glance. If the Soviet Union’s 100-megaton Tsar Bomba epitomized the Cold War arms race, the new race is better represented by the lower-yield “tactical” nuclear weapons that Russia is threatening to launch on Ukraine or, perhaps, into space.

Gerbera said weapons instructors at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada are already teaching these types of lessons to more pilots.

“So what does it mean to fly over this area and encounter a radiological threat? What does that mean for the aircraft?” he asked.

Gebara said he is now working to expand training for such scenarios across the Air Force.

“I think at all levels we need to develop this experience, not just at the tactical level and not just at the strategic level,” he said.

The results of the tabletop exercise, scheduled for later this month, will be presented at a conference of CORONA commanders.