Sydney slingshot or Brisbane blitz: where the AFL grand final will be won and lost | AFL

BRisbane and Sydney, this AFL season’s two standout teams, arrive at the MCG on Saturday with evenly matched lineups packed with top talent and increasingly similar game plans after taking very different routes to land on their style.

The Swans were early pioneers with 13 wins from their first 14 matches as their star-studded midfield and dazzling ball movement delighted record crowds at the SCG. The Lions were slower after taking time to get back on track after a heartbreaking defeat to the Magpies in last year’s premiership final, but returned to form at the right time with 13 wins in their Last 15 matches.

The final two finalists will both attempt to make up for their painful defeats on the biggest stage. But with an extra year to put the big final humiliation behind them, the Swans have had ample time to evolve from their 2022 squad which proved far from ready to take on the battle-hardened Cats.

The addition of forward Isaac Heeney to the onball brigade this season alongside the dynamic Chad Warner and the electrifying Errol Gulden proved to be a masterstroke. The all-Australian trio can do more damage than most midfielders close to goal, while ensuring the Swans are at least a match for their opponents on saves and in contests around the pitch. But it’s when the Swans get the ball into open spaces that the league’s highest-scoring team lights up.

Sydney are a formidable counter-attacking team, as they first limit the opposition from scoring even when entering their attacker 50 better than any other team, then hurt them by going the other way with sublime skill and fast runners. The minor premiers were almost unstoppable throughout the first half of the season as they opened up the opposition with the likes of Nick Blakey charging down the lane, but since a pre-final failure they have taken the habit of defeating their rivals so much on the wings. .

Although the Swans’ games can often seem frantic as the ball moves quickly from one end to the other, they always focus on maintaining possession, whether through flowing handball or kicking at 45 degree angles to open up the terrain. The Lions managed to stifle the Swans’ transitions in their Matchday 19 encounter, as well as limiting the production of Heeney and Warner, and a repeat in the grand final could be crucial to the result.

Brisbane prefer to play with more control, but have shown in stirring comebacks against GWS and Geelong over the past two weeks that they can also put aside their kicking style to find a blitz of goals when back on the wall. Veteran Dayne Zorko will be key to getting the Lions out of defense and is sure to wreak havoc, whether it’s simply with his running and running or when he gets under the opposition’s skin.

With Joe Daniher looming as a threat, although the Lions can never really be sure what they are going to get, they will also have the most dangerous key striker coming into the MCG. But Daniher threw 56.47 this season to be among the worst offenders, as the Lions too often paid the price for wayward kicks to score. Deeper forward entries and straighter kicks for goal will be key against the mostly accurate Swans, although the Lions are also adept at locking down the ball in their own half to create half chances for players like Charlie Cameron and Cam Rayner.

The Lions had to come out of the clouds twice to secure their place in the grand final as they chased down both the Giants and Cats, even though they had previously been the league’s quickest starters at during the round trip season. The Swans, on the other hand, have been notoriously slow over the first few terms, so if the Lions can take an early lead they could be buoyed by just one team who overcame a three-quarter time deficit in a grand final this century.

Game shapers

Sydney: Isaac Heeney – the “Rolls-Royce” of the Swans engine room has finally delivered on all its undeniable promises by evolving from an explosive striker capable of making an impact during passages in midfield to become one of the most damaging players of the game. Heeney is among the leading ball recoverers averaging 25.6 disposals and 5.9 clearances in 23 matches, while also scoring 33 goals for the second most scoring midfielder this year, behind Warner in doubled in attack.

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The Lions’ Josh Dunkley has mastered the art of dealing with the opposition’s most influential midfielder while finding plenty of the ball himself. The 191cm Dunkley compares well to the powerful Heeney and spent most of the Round 19 clash taking on the excitement machine. Heeney went goalless and had just 19 disposals in this match, for his second lowest total of the season, but showed with two better on-field performances in this finals series that he can cope with the greater watch out as the stakes rise. Expect Brandon Starcevich to pick up Heeney when the high-flying Swan drifts forward, but it will be difficult to slow him down while he is in the form of his life.

Brisbane: Joe Daniher – the Lions’ key forward can entertain as much for his erratic faults as his match-winning turn, but has demonstrated over the last two finals series that he is a player for the big moments as he improves with the ‘age. Daniher can score a bag of goals or be influential when moving higher up the pitch where he can be involved in the Lions’ link-up play and send the ball deep in attack. At 201cm, he will also spend time in the scrum supporting recalled Darcy Fort as he takes on the Swans’ combative big man Brodie Grundy.

Tom McCartin will get the first chance against Daniher and will look after the 30-year-old when he starts closer to goal, although Swans stand-in skipper Dane Rampe is also likely to spend time on him beyond the 50 m arc. Daniher is among the best strikers in the competition when it comes to taking his turn in the scrum, and the pressure will be on Grundy to make the most of facing a second striker in the absence of the Lions’ Oscar McInerney .

Norm Smith Medal Tip

With this grand final going back and forth, the best on floor medal is just as difficult to win, especially with stars on the floor on both sides. But as the Swans have a slightly better distribution of elite midfielders than the Lions, even if Dunkley can put the cooler on Heeney, Chad Warner should have ample opportunity to get off the chain.

Early prediction

Sydney have rediscovered something resembling their tantalizing early season form and have had their best players fit and firing at the right times. Brisbane have done well to turn around their shaky start to the season and have proven over the past fortnight that they cannot be counted out even when giving up a considerable lead. But with midfielder Lachie Neale hampered by a heel problem and first-choice ruck McInerney sidelined, the Lions may have run out of lives as they face the best team of the last six months. Sydney by 11 points.