Predicting the 5 automatic College Football Playoff qualifiers, one month into the season

Time flies when you watch football. At least I think that’s how the saying goes. Now that we’re a month into the college football season, it’s time to see how the College Football Playoff might play out. Five conferences will send automatic qualifiers to the 12-team tournament. So which teams are best positioned to win their conference and be ranked high enough to be part of an automatic bid? Let’s take a look.

ACC—Clemson

The ACC currently has three undefeated teams: Miami (Fla.), Pitt and Duke. The last of this group – Duke – might have the worst chances to win the conference right now with a road trip to Miami coming up. I’m going to give Miami the nod and put the Hurricanes above the Blue Devils in this game.

Pitt is undefeated, but the Panthers host Clemson and travel to Louisville in back-to-back weeks. I doubt the Panthers will come out of this streak unscathed. About the Cardinals, yes they are ranked and undefeated in conference, but they still play Clemson, Pitt, Miami and Boston College. Louisville probably won’t win the ACC.

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That leaves Miami. However, we also can’t forget about the top 25 team that is Clemson. The Tigers bring Louisville home and take a road trip to Pitt. Miami’s toughest game on the schedule will be a road trip to Louisville. I think even if either program loses a game, they will still meet in the conference championship game as the two best teams.

When they meet in Charlotte, I’ll give the edge to Clemson, a team averaging 55 points per game since a season-opening loss to Georgia. I like the way the Tigers have responded to adversity to start the year, and I think Cade Klubnik and his team will have plenty of momentum heading into the ACC title game and win.

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Big Ten – Ohio State

Ohio State has yet to be challenged in a game this year. While that’s likely to change with future road trips to Oregon and Penn State, I’ll need to see the most talented team in college football get pushed before saying they’ll lose.

The Buckeyes also bring Indiana and Michigan to close out the season at home, but Indiana could be disappointed after facing the Wolverines the week before — and Ohio State has a legitimate quarterback; This is not the case in Michigan.

Oregon and Penn State are my top contenders to face the Buckeyes in the conference title game, but I think Ohio State’s top three defenses in the FBS will put all the pressure on Drew Allar, which the Nittany Lions would like to avoid. The Ducks have the best chance of defeating the Buckeyes, but Oregon’s early season struggles create doubt about their ability to defeat an elite opponent.

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Big 12 – Iowa State

The Big 12 is the most open conference in college football with a chance to land a spot in the CFP. BYU and Iowa State are undefeated, Colorado has two of the top 10 players in the country, Kansas State and Utah can’t be counted out, Texas Tech is 2-0 in conference play and Arizona was in the top 25 best preseason teams. So who is the pick to win the conference?

I’m going with Iowa State. I think the Cyclones will remain undefeated in November with an October schedule featuring Baylor, West Virginia and UCF. Iowa State begins November after a bye week hosting Texas Tech, a favorable setup for the Cyclones. Then, nothing I’ve seen from Kansas or Cincinnati this year that would make me believe Iowa State can’t start the season 10-0.

Iowa State’s two toughest games will come late in the season when it travels to Utah before hosting Kansas State in the season finale. Luckily for the Cyclones, they might just need to win one of these games to clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Iowa State has the best chance to make the Big 12 title game, so they are my pick to win the conference.

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SEC—Texas

Let’s list the top contenders for the SEC title and break them down, one by one.

Texas A&M is undefeated in conference play, but the Aggies lost to Notre Dame and beat Bowling Green by just six points. Let’s be real here.

Georgia just lost to Alabama and still travels to Texas and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs finished with two conference losses and missed the title game.

LSU still plays Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Arkansas. This is a challenge where I think the Tigers win three of these games.

Ole Miss lost at home to Kentucky. If the Rebels let this slip, how can they be trusted in the big games, or even the SEC title game if they win?

Missouri, although undefeated, had close games with Boston College and Vanderbilt. Yes, both programs are exceeding expectations this year, but the SEC’s elite team shouldn’t have its greatness called into question against these two schools. Missouri’s schedule might allow them to qualify for the CFP, but I don’t think their conference record will be enough for an appearance in the title game.

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Alabama showed a lot in the win against Georgia. The Tide almost let this game slip away as well. I think these late game mistakes are signs that there are chinks in Alabama’s armor. That’s why I have them losing to the next SEC team on this list.

Tennessee welcomes Alabama home. I think the Vols – backed by one of the most balanced, yet explosive offenses in the country – bring down the Tide. From there, the only other tough game should be a road trip to Georgia, but if Alabama can light up the Bulldog secondary, so can Josh Heupel and his team. The Volunteers are in the SEC title game.

I like Texas to finish the SEC regular season undefeated. The Longhorns showed that whether it was with Quinn Ewers or Arch Manning, this team could rely on the quarterback to hold up.

So a battle of UT Oranges in the SEC Championship. Texas vs. Tennessee. I’m going to go with Texas to win this one. The Longhorns showed they can stop the run when they faced Michigan, and I think Ewers will be able to keep pace with a one-dimensional Tennessee offensive attack.

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Mountain West — Boise State

I think Boise State gets the final College Football Playoff spot. The Broncos have the best offensive-only position in the country in running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty is a Heisman contender who is putting up numbers reminiscent of Barry Sanders. He’s the engine that drives Boise State forward — and he shows no signs of slowing down.

As a team, Boise State faced Oregon in a three-point game, so the Broncos are battle tested. Even with a road trip to UNLV looming, I’ll still pick Boise State because they’ll have the best player on the field in this game — and every game they’ll play the rest of the year.