Houston Rockets consider trading NBA lottery pick

As with other teams holding lottery picks, the Rockets are hoping to beat the odds and move up in the draft.

Unlike those other teams, they’re hoping that lottery luck will help them trade their pick with someone else.

The Rockets will enter the lottery Sunday in Chicago with the ninth pick, one of the draft assets they acquired from the Brooklyn Nets in the James Harden trade. Their own pick, the 12th selection, will go to Oklahoma City as part of the Chris Paul trade to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook, unless he goes in the top four.

These transactions, spaced 18 months apart, were not unrelated. After giving up two draft picks and two draft trades as part of the Westbrook deal in 2019 (one of the trades was voided when he was protected as the second pick in the 2021 draft), the Rockets sought as many unprotected picks from the Nets as possible. obtain in 2021 to replenish their reserve of project assets during their reconstruction.

RELATED: A look at Houston’s strengths in the years to come

After selecting nine players in the first round of the last three drafts, including six who remain key rotation players, the Rockets have moved to a rebuilding stage where they are more interested in increasing their stock of future picks than adding another young hope to their team. the current list.

It has been an ongoing effort for several months that should be revisited in the six weeks leading up to the June 26 draft, a person with knowledge of the Rockets’ thinking said.

That was the subject of the Rockets’ call to the Nets in January when general manager Rafael Stone sought to offer the Nets’ picks to Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks in exchange for the Phoenix Suns’ draft picks that the Nets, according to two people familiar with the conversation.

That concept was quickly dismissed, with the Nets preferring to chase a playoff or Eastern Conference spot rather than work their way to a stronger first-round pick this season. Although reports indicated that the Rockets were interested in trading Jalen Green or acquiring Mikal Bridges, the Rockets’ main goal was – and still is – to recoup their collection of draft assets.

With that in mind, the Rockets could look to other teams with a stockpile of picks, including the Jazz and Thunder, although the Thunder would likely similarly prefer to have picks later rather than sooner, given its rise to the top seed in the Western Conference. the youngest team in the league. The Jazz are already in 8th place in this year’s lottery.

CHRONOLOGY: The history of the Rockets in the NBA draft lottery.

These types of deals are difficult, as the Rockets discovered with other trade efforts when they attempted to move late first-round picks in 2021 and 2022.

Moving up in the draft in Sunday’s lottery could help the Rockets’ strategy, or simply make using a pick this season more rewarding. But it is far from being the case.

The Rockets have a 20.3% chance of moving into the top four with the Nets’ pick, and a 7.1% chance of moving into the top four to keep their own pick (the obligation to the Thunder would turn into a future second round selection). if the pick is top four this year.)

Beyond the unlikely possibility of keeping their pick, lottery success would not be celebrated as would have been the case for a jump to the top right spot in the draft for Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama season last, or even for a landing with the first four picks each. the last three seasons, bringing together the Rockets Green, Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson.

This season’s draft class is considered relatively weak, in part due to a perceived lack of star potential at the top.

It’s almost certain that the reward for landing a top pick will be less than in previous drafts, but the power to choose among top prospects, rather than waiting to see who is available a third of the way through the first round, could be valuable . But another way to look at picking ninth or one of the next few picks might be that the potential of a player picked in that range won’t be much different than that of players picked a half-dozen spots earlier .

Although most drafts produce surprises, top 10 picks are more likely to be solid contributors than All-Stars.

Many of this season’s top prospects, Alex Sarr who played in Australia, Zaccharie Risacher of France and Nikola Topic of Serbia, are teenagers with unpredictable potential. G League Ignite players Ron Holland II and Matas Buzelis are also still teenagers.

This has become common for top-10 picks, with a handful of other potential top-10 picks — Kentucky’s Robert Dillingham, Connecticut’s Stephon Castle, Colorado’s Cody Williams, USC’s Isaiah Collier and Ja’Kobe Walter of Baylor – all teenagers who only played one season in college. basketball. The exception would be Tennessee senior Dalton Knecht.

The willingness of these actors to contribute is estimated to vary. But just like the Rockets don’t feel obligated to finish in the top 10 when they have the opportunity this season, other teams might not either.

If the Rockets keep their pick, as is likely the case given their efforts to do so thus far, they may need to consider the relative value of picking a player with the skill set to fit quickly to an already crowded rotation or long-term potential.

Throughout the reconstruction, they always sought the latter solution. The Rockets could have improved enough to consider how a prospect might fit among the young talent already acquired.

Beyond that, they’d like to not make a pick at all if they can get assets for a season that better fits their plans.