Trump’s second assassination attempt has inspired numerous conspiracy theories. Why deliberate misinformation is part of a growing cycle online.

Moments after the FBI confirmed Sunday that former President Donald Trump was the target of a second assassination attempt, theories and misinformation flooded social media.

It’s the new normal: Even before the story is fully pieced together, social media is filled with speculation and conspiracy theories presented as fact. Experts told Yahoo News that much of this speculation comes from conspiracy theorists who are taking advantage of the public’s expectation of getting information as quickly as possible, no matter who or where it comes from.

“What we see after these events is some actors taking advantage of the information gap, which is the period between when an incident is reported and when the investigation findings are announced,” said Katherine Keneally, director of threat analysis and prevention for the nonprofit Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

Keneally argues that this period allows viewers to shape their own narratives “to fit their worldview” without regard to facts or reality. In fact, in many cases, people have already decided their opinions and theories before the events even occur, says Mike Rothschild, a journalist and conspiracy theory expert.

“We already know that we’re going to blame incidents either on the anti-Trump deep state or on Trump himself,” Rothschild told Yahoo News. “By the time we know the facts of a case, our opinions are set in stone.”

Shortly after the assassination attempt was announced, many people were quick to question the validity of the threat, with the term “staged” even trending on X. These conspiracy theories gained momentum even as the FBI publicly called the situation “what appears to be an assassination attempt on former President Trump.”

Other theories have been put forward, including that the assassination attempts were the result of an inside job, that the FBI was behind it all, and that Time Magazine knew what was going to happen – all claims without any evidence to back them up.

The first assassination attempt on Trump in July only fanned the flames of these conspiracy theories a second time. In mid-July, Republican politicians continued to refer to a “they” who tried to assassinate Trump, suggesting a broader conspiracy behind the attack rather than a lone gunman, as law enforcement has determined.

This line of thinking continued during Sunday’s assassination attempt. X owner Elon Musk, for example, attempted to sow doubt in the aftermath of the second assassination attempt, tweeting, “No one is even trying to assassinate Biden/Kamala.”

Although Musk deleted the tweet, claiming it was a “joke,” it was still shared with his nearly 200 million X followers. X did not respond to Yahoo News’ request for comment.

Trump himself has interfered in the narrative.

“(Ryan Wesley Routh) believed the rhetoric of Biden and Harris, and he acted on it,” Trump said in a Sept. 16 interview with Fox News. “Their rhetoric is putting me under fire when I’m the one who’s going to save the country, and they’re the ones who are destroying the country, from the inside and the outside.”

Although the polls indicate that Routh is not affiliated with any political party, he reportedly has a history of anti-Trump posts on social media and has donated to Democratic causes. Authorities have not disclosed the motives for the alleged assassination attempt.

A global threat

While conspiracy theories certainly predate the internet, the current climate is arguably as bad as it’s ever been. A 2024 report from the World Economic Forum ranked “misinformation and disinformation” as “the most serious global risk anticipated over the next two years,” with the result being “further widening societal and political divisions.”

The combination of powerful, automated algorithms, rapidly evolving technology like AI, a lack of moderation on social media platforms, and an unprecedented news cycle are all combining to fuel misinformation and confuse the average reader.

“The algorithms of these platforms favor the most extreme content, which allows conspiracy theories to spread,” Keneally explained.

Rothschild also argues that rare events, such as two attempts to assassinate the president within two months, provide a natural starting point for conspiracies to develop.

The snake is biting its own tail. Joan Donovan, an assistant professor of journalism and emerging media studies at Boston University who studies disinformation, describes the “life cycle of a media manipulation campaign” as a feedback loop. “Media manipulators,” as Donovan calls them, spread stories on social platforms that are then picked up by activists, politicians, and journalists. This is leading to changes in the information ecosystem: While journalists are held to an ethical standard in their reporting, media manipulators on social media are not, meaning that an average reader looking for information can easily stumble upon these conspiracy theories. As platforms and media outlets attempt to moderate and combat this misinformation, the manipulators are adapting their tactics.

The situation could get even worse as the November election approaches, when election officials are already facing a flood of misinformation.

That’s what happened with the baseless theory that Haitian migrants are eating pets in Springfield, Ohio. While the rumor has circulated for decades as a form of xenophobia toward Haitians, it was a Facebook post by a Springfield woman that propelled the claim to national prominence. Blood Tribe, a national neo-Nazi group, began promoting it on Gab and Telegram, social platforms popular with right-wing extremists. Then it spread to X.

Vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance shared the story with his 1.9 million X followers, who shared it more than 31,000 times. The Wall Street Journal later reported that a Vance staffer asked Springfield’s city manager about the rumor after Vance tweeted, only to be told the allegations were “baseless.” That didn’t deter Vance.

Trump later brought up the issue during the presidential debate, objecting to ABC News moderator and anchor David Muir’s fact-checking, saying he had seen “people on television saying, ‘My dog ​​was kidnapped and used for food.'”

As with previous MAGA-fueled disinformation — that the 2020 election was rigged and “birther” conspiracy theories about former President Barack Obama, Harris and former Gov. Nikki Haley — conversations around the second assassination attempt are creating a feedback loop that conspiracy theorists can feed and prominent figures can amplify.

Efforts are underway to address this situation. On Tuesday, Democratic Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Mark Warner sent a letter to big tech companies urging them to take “decisive action” against misinformation ahead of the November election. But if the companies don’t take action, it may be too little, too late.

“The current social media ecosystem lacks effective safeguards to limit the spread of misinformation or disinformation online,” Keneally said. “We are long past the point of no return when it comes to expecting platforms to act in good faith and self-regulate.”