Iran’s IRGC plans ‘complex’ retaliation against Israel: what we know

Tensions continue to rise in the Middle East as Iran escalates threats against Israel and promises a “crushing response” to Israel strikes on Iranian soil last month.

In the early hours of October 26, Israel launched two waves of airstrikes across Iran, hitting military targets in the cities of Karaj, Mashhad and Tehran.

The Israeli military said its forces had targeted missile production sites and air defense. Iran’s Air Defense Force claimed it had “successfully” repelled the attack and said some locations suffered limited damage. According to the Iranian military, four Iranian soldiers were killed in the attack.

The four-hour Israeli attack is the most sustained against Iran to date – came in retaliation for an October 1 Iranian attack in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired ballistic missiles at Israel in response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC deputy commander Abbas Nilforoushan on September 27 in an airstrike in Beirut.

Recent statements and threats from several Iranian leaders and military commanders have raised questions about the nature and timing of Iran’s response, as the region braces for further violence.

Escalating rhetoric

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly vowed to retaliate against the Israeli attack. Most recently, on Saturday, Khamenei warned Israel and its ally United States of a ‘crushing reaction’.

“The enemies, whether it is the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will certainly receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran, the Iranian nation and the resistance front,” Khamenei said in a video released by state media.

Echoing similar threats, IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami said Israel and the United States will face a “tooth-breaking response” from Tehran and its allied resistance groups to any actions taken against Iran.

“On this path, the Resistance Front and Islamic Iran will equip themselves with everything necessary to confront and triumphantly overcome the enemy. . . without fear of the threats and saber-rattling of the criminals who rule Washington and Tel Aviv,” Salami said in a speech on Sunday at a rally commemorating the 45th anniversary of the 1979 attack on the US embassy in Tehran.

Speaking at the same ceremony, IRGC Deputy Commander Brig. General Ali Fadavi also claimed that Iran will launch a new attack on Israel in response to its latest ‘aggression’. He said details could not be revealed but stressed: “It will definitely be implemented.”

The IRGC launched its first direct attack on Israel in April, launching hundreds of drones in retaliation for a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing at least seven people, including two IRGC commanders.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the intensity of the response to the October attack depended on Israel’s will to stop its military actions in the region.

“Iran will in no way allow any violation of its territory and security to go unanswered,” he said at a cabinet meeting on Sunday. “They are well aware that any mistake against the Islamic Republic of Iran will be met with a crushing response.”

However, he added: “If they reconsider their actions, accept a ceasefire and stop killing innocent and oppressed people in the region, this could influence the nature and intensity of our response.”

Preparations on site

While Iran’s leaders sent mixed messages and remained elusive about the nature of their expected retaliation, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Sunday that Tehran had informed Arab diplomats of its plan to launch a “complex response” involving more powerful nuclear warheads and more powerful weapons would be involved. different weapons than it has previously used against Israel.

The US-based newspaper quoted Iranian and Arab officials briefed on the plan as saying the Iranian military will join the IRGC in the coming response as its forces suffered casualties in the October attack.

The Iranian source added that Iraqi territory may be used for part of the operation, saying the attack will “target Israeli military sites much more aggressively than last time.”

Regarding the timing of the operation, the same source said that the response would come after the US elections on Tuesday, November 5, to avoid possible influencing of the results, but before the inauguration of the new US president in January.

The American news site Axios had reported on Thursday that Iran could use Iraqi territory to launch an attack on Israel. Two Israeli sources said they had received intelligence about a large number of drones and ballistic missiles possibly fired from Iraq to prevent another retaliatory attack on its territory.

On Iran’s timing, Israeli sources said the operation would likely take place before the US presidential elections. Similarly, a senior Iranian source told CNN on Wednesday that the Israeli attack will be met with a “definitive and painful” response, possibly before the US elections.

According to three other Iranian officials familiar with the plans who spoke to the New York Times on Thursday, Khamenei has already instructed the Supreme National Security Council to prepare the response and that military commanders were drawing up a target list of dozens of military sites in Israel. Those officials claimed that Iran would likely launch the attack next American elections.

Although the timing remains unclear, it appears that Iran is preparing for a retaliatory strike.

Kamal Kharrazi, head of Iran’s Strategic Council for Foreign Relations, told al-Mayadeen TV on Friday that Iran could increase the range of its missiles if it “faces an existential threat.”

Another report, on the website of Israel’s Channel 13, claimed on Friday that Israeli and US intelligence services are closely monitoring Iranian movements to identify the movement of surface-to-surface missile systems within the country.