Movisitor might not get caught in Monmouth’s Salvator Mile stakes

The $150,000 Salvator Mile Stakes, Level 3 is one of four excellent stakes races at what is known as Haskell Preview Day at Monmouth Park. This race features a field of eight and seven of them are former stakes winners.

Among them, Shirl’s Speight leads in career earnings with $1.4 million. Almost all of this has been won on turf and his last victory was 26 months ago, in April 2022. Next in the group in terms of success and earnings is Bright Future, winner of the Jockey Club Grade 1 Gold Cup last September, who is making a comeback. racing after seven months off. In terms of recent success, Oscar Eclipse won the Sir Shackleton Stakes in March at seven furlongs while Coastal Mission won the same distance in the Frank Y. Whitely Stakes in April. Artorius won the Curlin Stakes in the summer of 2022 and won an allowance-level race in his last start last month. Movisitor won the Crowd Pleaser Stakes last June and also enters the Salvator Mile on the back of an allowance level victory. Stage Raider won the RA Cowboy Jones Stakes last summer and was last seen six months ago finishing sixth in the Tenacious Stakes.. Sherlock’s Jewel certainly fits these as he finished second in the Grade 3 Michelob Ultra Challenger Stakes when he last visited in March.

Analysis and main contenders:

Visitor has one thing going for him that the rest of the field doesn’t, and that’s an “early” style of racing that will almost assuredly allow him to take the lead shortly after the start. In 11 career dirt races, Movisitor has won six. His three most recent victories, in October and December last year, and again in his final race last month, were the result of Movisitor taking a clear lead from the start, adopting a steady pace and has never been disputed. The average margin of these three victories was four lengths, and in each race he was at least six lengths ahead of the next horse with an eighth of a mile to go. Returning from a four-month rest in April in a seven-furlong sprint and finishing eighth, on May 7 Movisitor stretched out for two laps and ran the fastest race he had ever run, gaining a figure of Equibase speed of 108. This figure is a quality stakes and can win this Grade 3 race, so he is the one to catch and beat, given it is likely he will run even better in his third race and of his second road race after the layoff.

Sherlock’s Jewel could be one of the few horses with a chance of catching the only favorite, Movisitor, in this situation. He has won two of his last three races and finished second in the other, namely the Challenger Stakes in March on his last visit. Sherlock’s Jewel had scores of 106, 102 and 101 in those three races and in his last two starts he finished third with a quarter mile to go. Challenger winner came back to win the Oaklawn Handicap after that and scored a figure of 114, so it’s possible that Sherlock’s Jewel will run the best race of his career at this year’s Salvator Mile..

Artorius began his career two years ago with flying colors, winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga that summer with a figure of 101. Decently regarded in the Travers Stakes a month later, he finished sixth and then after an effort for fourth Instead, it had eight months to mature. He made just two starts last year, finishing fourth at the 2023 Salvator Mile. then third, then I left for another nine months. This year, Artorius showed the spark he displayed in 2022, with a third-place finish in his comeback race in April, followed by a solid two-length victory last month. These two efforts grossed 105 and 104 figures respectively, which, if repeated, placed him among the top two contenders in this field.

As for the likely betting favorite Bright futurealthough he won four of the eight races, including the important Jockey Club Gold Cup last summer, with a figure of 110, he has a few question marks that I think suggest he won’t run that kind of race in that situation. More importantly, Bright Future returns after a seven-month hiatus in a two-lap race with no warm-up race first. Although he won on his debut, it was a one-lap race, just like his victory last April after 10 months off. None of these races were stakes, and a query from Race Lens to see how horses trained by Todd Pletcher perform in their return to dirt track racing after layoffs of six months or more reveals that he has only saddled one winner out of his last 10 horses in these situations. Given that there are other horses in this field that have run more recently and have run well, I think Bright Future could have his work cut out for him in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase speed figures in similar races, is Coastal mission (111), Oscar Eclipse (105), Shirl’s Speight (105) and Stage looter (112).

Win contenders:

Visitor

Sherlock’s Jewel

Artorius