Wimbledon 2024 draw: Nightmare for Iga Swiatek? Are Djokovic and Murray ready?

Draws are the ultimate cotton candy for tennis fans. They are irresistible.

These words have a fundamental meaning in a sport where the way players compete can have a huge influence on the outcome. They mean nothing in a sport where every player has to prove themselves every day.

So, what to take from this year’s Wimbledon men’s draw?

Novak Djokovic had his best day since undergoing surgery to repair his torn meniscus on June 5. He found himself on the opposite side of the draw from Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, the two tournament favorites and winners of the last two Grand Slams.

His first opponent is a qualifier named Vit Kopriva of the Czech Republic, 27 and ranked 123rd in the world. If he can get past Kopriva, Djokovic will face either another qualifier, Alejandro Moro Canas of Spain, ranked 189th, or a British wildcard named Jacob Fearnley, ranked 271st. The tennis gods could not have been kinder to the 24-time Grand Slam champion, who is the best grass-court player on the planet.

This is not the case with Sinner. The Italian has the potential to face some strong opponents: one is a proven champion on grass, the other someone who should become one one day.

The first match could be a second-round match with fellow countryman Matteo Berrettini, a 2021 finalist and two-time champion at Queen’s Club. He has been cursed by injuries and illness the past two years, but Berrettini has the kind of big serve and big game that can take the racquet out of an opponent’s hands, especially on the slippery grass of the first week. He won’t be afraid of Centre Court, either.

Second is Ben Shelton, another ram who probably won’t have another year or two before he can play on grass. He set foot on grass for the first time a year ago. He loves this court, but the grass may not like it yet, and Shelton may have to go through another grass enthusiast, Denis Shapovalov, to get to Sinner. But Shelton will start against Italian qualifier Mattia Bellucci.

As for Alcaraz, the defending champion, he should have a smooth ride until the middle of the second week. Mark Lajal, a 21-year-old Estonian who qualified for the first round, is his opponent. His first match could be against Frances Tiafoe in the third round, but the latter has been out of form since last September. A fully-fit Tommy Paul could reach the quarter-finals, but that is still a long way off.

Alexander Zverev’s quarter may be the softest — No. 20 seed Sebastian Korda may be the best grass-court player in this section — but Zverev could use the help. Finalist in the Grand Slam tournament on clay and hard courts, Zverev has never gone beyond the fourth round at Wimbledon.

There’s also this guy named Andy Murray, a British player who’s quite well-known at the All England Club. Murray, who may not play if he doesn’t recover from the surgery he underwent a few days ago to remove a cyst from his spine, will face the highly regarded Czech Tomas Machac in the first round, against whom he tore ankle ligaments in Miami earlier this year. He’s not an easy opponent, although Murray himself would probably say that, in his current state, anyone with a pulse and a racket could prove formidable.

Wimbledon 2024: Men’s first round predictions

• 🇮🇹 Jannik Sinner (1) against 🇩🇪 Yannick Hanfmann
• 🇨🇱 Nicolas Jarry (19) against 🇨🇦 Denis Shapovalov
• 🇨🇱 Cristian Garin (Q) vs. 🇨🇳 Jerry Shang
• 🇮🇹 Matteo Arnaldi vs 🇺🇸 Frances Tiafoe (29)
• 🇷🇺 Pavel Kotov vs. 🇦🇺 Jordan Thompson
• 🇧🇪 Zizou Bergs (Q) vs 🇫🇷 Arthur Cazaux
• 🇨🇿Jakub Mensik vs 🇰🇿Alexander Bublik (23)
• 🇺🇸 Sebastian Korda (20) against 🇪🇸 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• 🇫🇷 Arthur Fils vs 🇨🇭 Dominic Stricker
• 🇫🇷 Andy Murray vs 🇨🇿 Tomas Machac
• 🇫🇷 Corentin Moutet against 🇦🇺 Alex de Minaur (9)

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Somewhere in south-west London on Friday morning, world number 2 Coco Gauff would have been forgiven for allowing herself a small smile.

On the day of the Wimbledon draw, she was the big winner on the women’s side. As the number 2 seed, Gauff already couldn’t face world number 1 Iga Swiatek before a possible final; given his lopsided 1-11 record against Swiatek, this was a pre-existing bonus.

But apart from that, any of the remaining seeds could have fallen to her side. Half of them did – because that’s how the draw works – but as the numbers came out, the toughest and most difficult seeds on the SW19 grass kept falling to Swiatek’s side.

2022 champion Elena Rybakina is in Swiatek’s half, followed by defending champion Marketa Vondrousova, one of the players of the year so far and another flat hitter in Danielle Collins, two-time finalist Ons Jabeur and former French Open winner and semi-finalist Jelena Ostapenko, who has an undefeated record against Swiatek. Jessica Pegula, who just won a grass court tournament in Berlin last week, is also there.

Gauff’s team has some tough opponents, of course, like her compatriot Madison Keys, who is always a threat on grass, a resurgent Naomi Osaka and 17-year-old Russian Mirra Andreeva, fresh off a semifinal at Roland Garros. But after third seed Aryna Sabalenka, the top three seeds in the bottom half are No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (no career grass-court wins until this week), No. 8 Qinwen Zheng (two match wins at Wimbledon) and No. 9 Maria Sakkari (who has had a tough year and had her best run in the third round at Wimbledon).

This is the good news for Gauff. The bad news?

Predicting the winner of Wimbledon has been child’s play for the better part of a decade. The last ten editions have been won by nine different players, with Serena Williams being the only player to double her record during this period. The last six tournaments have seen six different winners, two of whom have retired and one of them, Simona Halep, is not ranked high enough to play this year after returning from a doping suspension.

The three remaining winners are all in the first part of the draw, with Angelique Kerber joining Rybakina and Vondrousova in Swiatek’s half.

Wimbledon doesn’t just produce multiple winners: it’s a tournament full of twists and turns throughout. And even in the first round, some big names are playing tricky matches.

Swiatek starts against Sofia Kenin, the former American Australian Open champion who is still fighting hard and played a few matches at Eastbourne this week to prepare for playing on the grass. Swiatek arrives without a pre-Wimbledon tournament, so she could be vulnerable from the start – and if the Pole has any doubts about Kenin’s threat level at Wimbledon, she just has to ask Gauff.

Twelve months ago, Kenin defeated Gauff in the first round as a qualifier and eventually reached the third round. Gauff knew from the draw last year that her compatriot was a formidable opponent, with Kenin having made it through qualifying and was full of confidence.

“His game is, I don’t know, a tough game to play against. She has a few weapons, some underrated weapons, that I think people don’t talk about as much.

Two days later, Gauff’s premonitions came true. “She had nothing to lose today,” Gauff said after Kenin knocked her out in the first round. “Obviously she won a Grand Slam, but she is in a difficult situation in her career. So I knew that when she arrived, she would play with a lot of motivation.

Gauff lost that day 6-4, 4-6, 6-2, but there was a glimmer of hope. By the time she played her next tournament in Washington, D.C., Brad Gilbert was coaching her for the first time, and a U.S. Open title was coming a few weeks later. After that experience last year, it’s no wonder she felt she had earned a good draw this time around.

On the other hand, Swiatek may feel a little aggrieved by the way things played out this time around. If she gets past Kenin, a possible run from the fourth round to the final with Ostapenko/Caroline Garcia, Collins/Vondrousova, then Rybakina/Jabeur would certainly do it the hard way.

Among the other potentially tricky first rounds, Collins, who will be looking to regain some momentum after a disappointing French Open, will take on young Dane Clara Tauson, who impressed by reaching the fourth round in Paris earlier this month – this. Victoria Azarenka, seeded No. 16 and Gauff’s expected fourth-round opponent, will open against former US Open champion American Sloane Stephens. Ostapenko, seeded No. 13, should have her work cut out for her against Australian Ajla Tomljanovic, who reached the final in Birmingham last week and was a quarter-finalist at Wimbledon in 2021 and 2022. Part of that run included a very tense third-round match against Ostapenko, although both players played again at the Australian Open in January (won by Ostapenko) and reconciled their differences.

For defending champion Vondrousova, who plays for the first time on Center Court on Tuesday against world number 83 Jessica Bouzas Maneiro of Spain, all eyes will be on the way she moves, after suffering a hip injury at Berlin last week.

Wimbledon 2024: women’s first round predictions

• 🇨🇦 Iga Swiatek (1) vs 🇺🇸 Sofia Kenin
• 🇰🇿 Yulia Putintseva vs 🇩🇪 Angelique Kerber (WC)
• 🇫🇷 Caroline Garcia (23) vs 🇷🇺 Ana Blinkova
• 🇦🇺 Anja Tomljanovic (WC) vs 🇱🇻 Jelena Ostapenko (13)
• 🇺🇸 Danielle Collins (11) vs 🇩🇰 Clara Tauson
• 🇷🇺 Ekaterina Alexandrova (22) against 🇬🇧 Emma Raducanu (WC)
• 🇪🇸 Paula Badosa vs 🇨🇿 Karolina Muchova
• 🇨🇿 Linda Fruhvirtova (15) vs 🇷🇺 Mirra Andreeva (24)
• 🇮🇹 Jasmine Paolini (7) vs 🇪🇸 Sara Sorribes Tormo
• 🇨🇦 Bianca Andreescu vs 🇷🇴 Jaqueline Cristian
• 🇧🇾 Victoria Azarenka (16) vs 🇺🇸 Sloane Stephens

The main draws begin this Monday, July 1st. What are your standout matches from the first round? And who do you think will go all the way? Let us know in the comments…