Will Biden get caught up in the anti-incumbency trend?

A major question looming overseas this week is what the results of recent global elections tell us about the race for the U.S. elections in November. Will American politics be swept up in the anti-incumbent, anti-establishment sentiment seen elsewhere in the 2024 election cycle, eroding the long-standing American norm that current incumbents tend to be difficult to replace? And what does all this mean for the particular race between president Joe Biden and former president Donald Trumprevived by last week’s debate?

Already this year, incumbent presidents in South Africa and India have seen their majorities collapse, and elections in Senegal brought a foreigner to power. However, the election of Morena in Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum pointed in a different direction. With this week’s elections in France, as well as the vote in the United Kingdom which will almost certainly mean the end of the Conservative Party’s rule, something fundamental appears to be changing in the politics of the incumbents with relevant indications for the US elections in November.

It seems clear that the narrative emerging from the current election cycle is one of a long COVID story. Persistent inflation, high interest rates over a long period of time, cost of living pressures and high unemployment rates influence voting behavior. Voters around the world are left with lighter wallets than before the pandemic, regardless of what their politicians or Treasury statistics can tell them. In 2024, perception has become reality, which poses a danger for incumbents.

Post-pandemic considerations around the economic recovery taking place this election season could push voters away from the center and toward the extremes. One of the headlines from last month’s European elections was that the center was holding on, but, seen from another perspective, the rise of the right cannot be overlooked. Call it pragmatism, tactical populism, whatever you want: far-right and far-left political parties and politicians can be found in governments from Italy to Argentina. These movements are now targeting France, the United Kingdom and the United States.

When the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak US President Donald Trump has called a snap election on 4 July, but it seemed an ill-advised choice of date for what will likely be “independence” after 14 years of Conservative rule. It is a staggering length of time that masks a trajectory of decline since 2021, with likely roots in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Sunak’s surprise call has reawakened Nigel Farage and the right-wing Reform UK party, which, according to in the last poll, is close to overtaking the Tories for second place. This means that, as Labor prepares for victory, the most dominant political party for almost a decade and a half is facing an extinction-level political event.

While the US party system may be more robust than the UK in this election cycle, there are still parallels to the US election. It has long been said that American politics is polarised, with the left-right divide becoming deeper and deeper, leaving fewer and fewer points of convergence.According to a survey carried out 10 years agothe share of Americans expressing consistently conservative or consistently liberal views has doubled in two decades. The story of 2014 is not only a story of polarization, but also a story of partisanship. Ten years ago, people felt more conservative (or liberal) and more intensely identified as Republicans (or Democrats) than in the past. Today, it is almost obvious that there is little in common between the two political camps and that the gap is widening. According to the American National Election Studieslatest dataaffective polarization has accelerated over the past decade. Today, only 21 percent of Democrats report positive feelings toward Republicans, and only 18 percent of Republicans report positive feelings toward their Democratic counterparts.

As a result of these trends, the president Joe Biden has tried to move further left on some issues to address the risk of “unengaged” voters as well as younger, more progressive voter blocs. On the other hand, the former president Donald Trumprather than seeking to appeal to more moderate voters, sticks to messages about an (economic) “bloodbath” that appeal to his base. A sign of the times, vote In May, it found that “political extremism and threats to democracy” are behind the economy as the most important issue facing the country heading into the November election. And in worrying news for Biden’s reelection campaign, voters tend to trust Trump more — at least on the economy — than they do the president.

Politics may be cyclical. But cycles can be generational. With around half of the world’s population heading to the polls this year, the political choices made at the national level will have consequences across borders and for years to come. The post-pandemic reconciliation process taking place in India, South Africa and Mexico is gaining momentum and reaching Europe this week. By November, the United States could find itself caught in this global tide, pushing disaffected voters out of their usual middle ground and toward the poles, which could be bad news for current incumbents.

Dr Lindsay Newman is head of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical practice for Eurasia Group and is based in London. She writes the “Views on America” column for GZERO.