Polymarket posts first $100 million month as election drama intensifies

This week in prediction markets:

• Polymarket surpassed $100 million in volume in June, a record month amid a breakthrough year for the crypto-based prediction market platform.

• Biden: Will he stay or go?

• Short-term stability for BTC prices, but a drop below $50,000 is possible before a rally to above $75,000.

• The “stranded” astronauts are unlikely to leave the International Space Station aboard a Boeing spacecraft in late July.

Polymarket’s volume surpassed $100 million in June, a record month in a breakthrough year for the crypto-based prediction market platform.

According to data from Dune Analytics, $111 million in bets were placed on Polymarket last month. It was by far the best month in the history of the company, which celebrated its fourth anniversary last month and is riding high on excitement surrounding the November U.S. election.

The most recent catalyst was President Joe Biden’s performance in last week’s presidential debate, an absolute disaster.

The New York Times editorial board, usually a source of staunch support for a Democratic White House, is calling on him to resignCBS/YouGov poll finds 72% of voters I believe Biden does not have the cognitive health to serve as president.

Biden’s chances of becoming president fell from 33.5% before the debate to 18% on Monday morning US time, with Trump consolidating his lead to 63%.

Another contract, this one concerning the possibility of Biden abandonment The race as a whole also saw a surge in trading volume after the debate, with “yes” shares rising to 44 cents in the hours afterward, up from 19 cents earlier.

Each share yields $1 (in the USDC stablecoin) if the prediction comes true and zero otherwise, so the 44 cent price indicated a 44% probability that Biden would step down.

An NBC Story The fact that Biden is spending the weekend with his family at the presidential retreat in Mount David to discuss the future of his campaign has pushed the odds up to 50%.

Those odds settled at just over 40% Monday morning U.S. time, as over the weekend the White House denied the reports, saying the trip was planned in advance.

For his part, President Biden is determined to stay in the race.

“I understand the concern that was raised after the debate. I understand.” NPR quoted the president as I told a room full of donors. “I didn’t have a great night. But I’m going to fight harder, and I’m going to need you by my side to get there.”

The story continues

The contract has attracted serious political bettors, with the biggest holders on both sides of the digital spectrum betting largely on politically themed markets.

“There is a real batman“, the biggest “no” supporter, holds $2.9 million in various political contracts, constantly betting that Biden and Trump will win their respective nominations, that Biden will win the popular vote and that Trump will not win the US presidential election.

The only exception to Therealbatman’s largely political portfolio involves a $50,000 bet that the Eigen token, the native token of the Eigenlayer protocol, will not be transferable until former Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao is released from prison.

Across the aisle, the largest holder on the “yes” side of the Biden abandonment contract, an anonymous user known only by his Ethereum Wallet Addressholds a $184,000 position on Biden’s fate, as well as a $6,200 stake in Michelle Obama winning the Democratic nomination.

The user also bet $9,700 on independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to win the presidential election, a bet that is currently trading at 2 cents.

Bitcoin Price Prediction

Prediction market traders have mixed opinions on where bitcoin’s price will go.

In the short term: stability.

A Polymarché contract gives bitcoin a 78% chance of being above $61,000 by July 5.

For reference, CoinDesk Index Data Bitcoin traded above $63,300 for most of Monday’s business day in Asia, a marked recovery from its 2018 low. Tests are under $60,000 as of early last week.

CoinDesk Indexes Bitcoin Trend Indicator notes that the world’s largest digital asset is in a period of “significant downtrend.”

This is where things start to get complicated. The market “tea leaves” that punters are trying to read put us in a correction situation before a rally that could test BTC’s all-time high.

First of all, contract According to the US-regulated Kalshi platform, there is a 65% chance that bitcoin will fall below $50,000 by the end of 2024 and a 22% chance that it will reach below $40,000. Another contract provides a 70% chance BTC reaching $75,000 or more by year-end.

Unlike Polymarket, which operates almost everywhere except the United States, Kalshi is exclusively American and its bets are settled in dollars.

There are several indicators that show that the market expects the price of bitcoin to be challenged by continued dollar strength. This will certainly will ease once the Federal Reserve begins cutting rateswhich punters are almost certain will happen by the final quarter.

Stuck in space

Boeing has been going through a rough patch on Earth, and its problems seem to have extended beyond the planet’s borders.

The embattled aerospace giant’s first space capsule is stuck at the International Space Station (ISS) after helium leaks and propellant problems prevented it from flying. moored without a set return date. The Starliner Journey was supposed to conclude June 13th.

Oddsmakers believe the astronauts will remain aboard the ISS for some time to come, with a Polymarket contract giving just an 11% chance that the astronauts will depart aboard the Starliner by July 21.

The fine print of the contract states that the astronauts must depart aboard Boeing’s Starliner. A rescue ship from SpaceX or Russia won’t count. Nor does it specify that the astronauts must return to Earth safely.

UPDATE (July 1, 19:49 UTC): Added data on Polymarket’s record monthly volume, updated title.