Defense Department Announces Results of Sentinel Nunn-McCurdy Investigation > Air Force > View Article

WASHINGTON (AFNS) —

On January 18, 2024, the Air Force notified Congress that the Sentinel program was exceeding its baseline cost projections, resulting in a critical violation of the Nunn-McCurdy Act. A critical violation of the Nunn-McCurdy Act occurs if the program’s unit acquisition cost or average unit procurement cost increases by 25 percent or more over the current acquisition program baseline. Under the act, the affected program must be terminated unless the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets established criteria for continuation.

THE Office of the Secretary of Defense The Department fulfilled its statutory obligations by conducting a comprehensive and impartial review of the program to determine the factors that led to these cost increases and to determine whether to certify the continuation of the program. Experienced experts from various disciplines and from across the Department actively contributed to this review.

Based on the results of the examination, Dr. William A. LaPlantethe USD(A&S) which served as Department of Defense responsible for the review and decision-making authority for key program milestones, certified that the Sentinel program met the regulatory criteria to continue. These criteria included that:

• Continuation of the Sentinel program is essential to national security;
• There are no alternatives to the program that would meet common needs at lower cost;
• The new estimates of the unit cost of acquiring the program or the unit cost of supply have been deemed reasonable by the Director of Cost and Program Evaluation;
• The program is a higher priority than programs whose funding must be reduced to reflect growing program costs; and
• The program management structure is adequate to manage and control the program’s unit acquisition cost or unit procurement cost.

In allowing the program to continue, LaPlante rescinded the Sentinel program’s approval at Stage B, which is the point at which an acquisition program is allowed to enter the engineering development and manufacturing phase. He also directed the Air Force to restructure the Sentinel program to address the root causes of the breach and ensure that an appropriate management structure is in place to control costs going forward.

CAPE estimates that the total Sentinel program acquisition costs for a reasonably modified Sentinel program are $140.9 billion, an 81% increase over the estimates in the program’s previous Milestone B decision in September 2020. The Nunn-McCurdy review determined that the majority of the cost growth is in the Sentinel Command and Launch segment, which includes the launch facilities, launch centers, and the process, duration, personnel, and facilities to execute the conversion. Minuteman III has Sentinel.

“We are fully aware of the costs, but we are also fully aware of the risks we face if we do not modernize our nuclear forces and address the very real threats we face,” LaPlante said. “There are reasons for the rising costs, but there are no excuses. We are already working to address the root causes, and most importantly, we believe we are on the right path to defending our nation while protecting the sacred trust that the American taxpayer has entrusted to us.”

“The nuclear triad is the foundation of our national defense, and as our competitors modernize their own nuclear forces, the urgency to contain the threat is reflected in our Review of nuclear posture“Sentinel is a truly historic program to modernize the land arm of the Triad. Its scale, scope, and complexity are things we have not attempted as a nation in 60 years. After conducting a comprehensive and objective evaluation of the program, it is clear that Sentinel remains critical to U.S. national security and is the best option to meet the needs of our warfighters.”

Preserving the schedule will be a key consideration when restructuring the program; however, a delay of several years is currently estimated.

While the U.S. nuclear arsenal remains safe, secure, and effective, most nuclear deterrent systems are operating beyond their designed lifespans, and there is little or no buffer between the end of their effective lifespans and the fielding of their replacements. These modernized capabilities are necessary to ensure that there are no gaps in our ability to deploy a credible and effective deterrent.

The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review concluded that a modernized Triad remains necessary to deter strategic attack, reassure allies and partners, and achieve U.S. objectives in the event of deterrence failure. The Sentinel program was created to modernize and replace the land-based arm of the Triad, currently comprised of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile weapon system.

“The land portion of the Triad is a critical part of our nuclear enterprise that strengthens our national security,” the Air Force undersecretary said. Melissa Dalton“The Air Force is committed to restructuring the Sentinel program to address the findings of this study and to modernizing our ICBM force to ensure its effectiveness against future threats while ensuring there are no capability gaps during the transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.”

Today’s dynamic security environment only underscores the importance of our nation’s nuclear deterrence to the United States’ defense strategy and, in particular, the extended deterrence commitments we have made to our allies and partners.

“Our American nuclear forces stand ready, as they have for decades, to deter our adversaries and respond decisively if deterrence fails,” the Air Force chief of staff said. Gen. David W. Allvin“We face a complex and evolving security environment, with two major nuclear powers that are strategic competitors and potential adversaries. While I have confidence in our existing systems today, it is imperative that we modernize our nuclear triad. A restructured Sentinel program is essential to ensure that we remain best positioned to address future threats.”