Decoding the Modi-Putin summit: what message did India and Russia just send to the world?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Russia was not intended to produce spectacular results. This was largely because the visit came days after the end of India’s general elections, followed by Modi’s swearing-in for his new term, his preoccupation with forming a new government, and heated debates in Parliament. Modi made a foray to the G7 summit in Italy almost immediately after taking office for a third consecutive term. He would not have had enough time to work intensively in advance to finalize any major new results.

However, the two sides signed nine cooperation agreements in addition to the joint declaration.

The objective of the bilateral summit was to take stock of bilateral relations and propose solutions to strengthen them, as well as to discuss ways to overcome the obstacles created by the draconian sanctions imposed on Russia, especially on the financial front. Another pressing issue was how to consolidate the recent gains in bilateral trade while addressing the problem of the highly unbalanced trade balance to the detriment of India.

Also important was the exchange of views on the agenda of the BRICS summit that Russia will chair later this year.

Putin’s perspective on ending the conflict in Ukraine, which pits Russia against the United States and the G7 as a whole and has rekindled Cold War-style tensions and negatively affected the Global South, has attracted great interest from Modi.

Send a strong message

The main outcome of this visit was the visit itself: Russia was chosen as the destination of Modi’s first bilateral visit abroad so soon after his re-election. This sent a strong signal to Russia about the importance India attaches to its relations with Russia. It was also a message to the West that New Delhi would not succumb to undue pressure to dilute its ties with Moscow.

Learn more

‘No subject is taboo’: Modi’s Moscow visit explained

The visit provided an ideal opportunity for an in-depth meeting with Putin. The summit format called for lengthy one-on-one talks between the leaders, without assistants. The discussions, which took place over dinner at Putin’s private residence, lasted four and a half hours, and the one-on-one talks lasted two and a half hours.

Some Western foreign policy experts have expressed outrage on social media over Modi’s warm welcome to Putin and the timing of the bilateral summit coinciding with the NATO summit in Washington DC, while the visit has also drawn some official comments from the US.

The State Department and White House spokespeople said the United States is having a full and frank dialogue with India, including on its relations with Russia, and that it is essential that all countries, including India, support efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.

The State Department spokesperson also said hours before the summit ended that the US had held conversations with India “the last 24 hours” on Modi’s visit. The White House spokesman added that India’s long-standing relationship with Russia gives it the ability to urge Putin to end his “a brutal and unprovoked war.” Overall, these remarks are not new and New Delhi can accept them – but it is objectionable that Washington claims the right to interfere in India-Russia relations.

The outburst by President Zelensky, who criticized Modi for being the leader of the world’s largest democracy, however, hugged a “bloodthirsty criminal” in Moscow and inflicting a “A devastating blow to peace efforts,” is contemptible. He should have kept in mind that Modi had supported him at the G7 summit when his democratic credentials and those of Ukraine itself were highly suspect and Russia viewed him in the same terms in which he had described Putin.

Focus on economic cooperation

The joint statement issued by the two countries after the summit lists a set of efforts that both sides will make to strengthen economic ties and remove obstacles.

Learn more

Oil is thicker than water: What to expect from Putin-Modi trade talks

It is recognized that there is a need to actively explore new avenues of cooperation to forge a contemporary, balanced, mutually beneficial, sustainable and long-term partnership, while further strengthening cooperation in traditional areas.

In 2023, India and Russia doubled their trade forecast for 2025, reaching $65 billion from the original $30 billion. But for reasons of balance and long-term sustainability, both sides stressed the need to increase Indian exports to Russia. A new bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030 was set.

During the visit, a joint statement on the development of strategic areas of Russian-Indian economic cooperation for the period up to 2030 was signed and nine key areas of action were identified. These include cooperation in the development and supply of advanced medicines and medical equipment, as well as the possibility of opening branches of Indian medical institutions in Russia and recruiting qualified medical personnel.

As the issue of payments has become more complex due to sanctions, the two sides agreed to promote a bilateral settlement system using national currencies. Consultations on the interoperability of the two countries’ respective financial messaging systems will continue.

The initial meeting in March 2024 to begin full negotiations for a free trade agreement (on goods) between India and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was noted. The possibility of starting negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement in the areas of services and investment was also discussed.

It was agreed to continue cooperation on sustainable supply of fertilizers from India on the basis of long-term contracts. On the energy front, it was agreed to explore new long-term contracts, including the possibility of further increasing the supply of coking coal from India.

A partnership agreement on migration and mobility between the two governments was also presented.

In order to build a new architecture for stable and efficient transport corridors, the implementation of the Chennai-Vladivostok (Eastern Sea) corridor and the International North-South Transport Corridor, as well as using the potential of the Northern Sea Route (for which a joint working body within IRIGC-TEC for cooperation on the Northern Sea Route would be created) are on the agenda.

Learn more

India’s Return: How Modi Foiled the West’s Grand Plan

An India-Russia cooperation programme in the fields of trade, economy and investment in the Russian Far East for the period 2024-2029, including in the sectors of agriculture, energy, mining, manpower, diamonds, pharmaceuticals, etc. has been signed.

On nuclear cooperation, the joint statement provides for the timely completion of the Kudankulam nuclear power plant that Russia is building in India and continued discussions on the second site, including technical discussions on the Russian-designed VVER 1200, but no new initiatives are mentioned. In the space field, the two countries will explore mutually beneficial avenues of cooperation in the development, production and use of rocket engines.

In the field of defence, the two sides agreed to encourage joint manufacturing in India of spare parts, components, aggregates and other products for the maintenance of weapons and defence equipment of Russian origin under the “Make in India” programme. The joint statement clarifies that this will be done through technology transfer and the creation of joint ventures. This is essential both to meet the needs of the Indian armed forces, as well as for subsequent export to mutually friendly third countries with the approval of both sides.

Diplomacy at work

The joint statement does not emphasize multipolarity. India’s hosting of virtual Voice of the South summits under its chairmanship in 2023 is seen as an important signal in favor of building a multipolar world order. The second reference to multipolarity comes in the context of the increased role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in shaping a sustainable, multipolar world order.

Learn more

Here’s why India needs BRICS and Russia

Regarding BRICS, Russia and India agreed to continue their joint efforts aimed at developing the modalities for establishing a BRICS partner country model, but the joint statement does not contain any reference to further expansion of BRICS.

The language on terrorism is robust and responsive to India’s needs. It is significant that both sides have strongly condemned the “Recent heinous terrorist attack on army convoy in Kathua area of ​​Jammu and Kashmir on 8th July 2024.”

Both sides noted with satisfaction the close coordination between India and Russia on Afghanistan, including through the mechanism of dialogue between the Security Councils of the two countries.

On the Ukrainian conflict, both sides stressed the imperative of achieving a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, including through dialogue between the two sides. They noted with satisfaction the relevant proposals for mediation and good offices aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict in accordance with international law and on the basis of the UN Charter. Diplomacy has worked well on both sides to find a common language on this very sensitive issue, with the West closely monitoring this part of the joint statement, and no doubt disappointed by its blandness.

In a clever diplomatic formulation, the two sides agreed to strengthen joint efforts to build an equal and indivisible regional security architecture and to intensify consultations on synergies between integration and development initiatives in the Eurasian space and in the Indian and Pacific Ocean regions. This meets Russia’s quest for equal and indivisible security in Europe and is balanced by India’s concerns in the Indo-Pacific zone on which Russia’s approach is different.

In his address to the Indian community, Modi said that a decision had been taken to open two new consulates in Kazan and Yekaterinburg, although this was not included in the joint statement. Overall, the Modi-Putin summit served the interests of both sides at the bilateral, regional and international levels.