Four things to watch as NATO leaders meet in the U.S. capital for a high-stakes summit

The last time Washington hosted a NATO summit in 1999, the alliance was celebrating a milestone. It was also facing a war in Europe and welcoming new members.

So there will be a certain sense of déjà vu in the American capital when leaders from 32 countries gather from July 9, 2024 to discuss the state of the alliance on its 75th anniversary.

The scale of the challenges facing NATO today, both inside and outside the organisation, dwarfs those it faced when it commemorated its fiftieth anniversary in 1999. The war in Ukraine has been raging for more than two years. NATO must also address the rise of China and the geopolitical challenges that this entails. At the same time, several members of the Alliance are facing political difficulties at home and related elections.

The upcoming US presidential election is particularly important for NATO. Republican candidate Donald Trump has been quick to express his dissatisfaction with the alliance. And his close advisers suggest that he is seriously considering trying to withdraw the United States from NATO if he is re-elected president.

Other items on the NATO summit agenda include the development of a new southern flank strategy to address growing security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa and the introduction of a new Secretary General, Mark Rutte.

But it is the following four topics that will likely dominate discussions in Washington from July 9 to 11. How the Alliance approaches them will go some way toward signaling NATO’s health on its 75th anniversary – and the Alliance’s future direction.

1. Ukraine’s accession: a semantic battle?

NATO first expressed support for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance in 2008, but offered no timetable for moving forward. This state of uncertainty has continued to weigh on the alliance ever since. At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the alliance did not appear to be in any particular hurry, stating: “We will be in a position to invite Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and the conditions are met.”

The vague wording provoked a fierce and frustrated public reaction from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who denounced the language as “unprecedented and absurd.”

The Washington summit will once again be a delicate exercise in semantics. A formal invitation to join Ukraine will not be on the agenda, as several countries still oppose it. The United States and Germany, in particular, have said they want to see more improvements from the Kiev government in fighting corruption and upholding the rule of law first.

The challenge for NATO leaders will be to find language in their official statement that can appease all sides. It would have to show progress over last year, be welcomed by kyiv, and continue to command the support of all NATO member states. The Biden administration has talked about providing a “bridge to membership,” but other allies are still hoping for stronger language. They are pushing for language along the lines of outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s April statement that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path.”

2. Supporting Ukraine: Protecting aid from political winds

Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Western states have provided significant military aid to kyiv. But recent deliveries have faced significant delays, due to opposition from some European Union countries and members of the U.S. Congress. These delays have had dire consequences on the battlefield for Ukraine as it tries to counter Russia’s momentum.

One of NATO’s key challenges will be how to institutionalize support for Ukraine while protecting it from the prevailing political winds among member states.

As a first step, NATO should take over the coordination of security assistance and training for Ukraine. According to Stoltenberg, this simply reflects the fact that “99 percent of military support already comes from NATO members.” But it is also intended to improve the current process. Indeed, the current system of country-specific support has not always been driven by efficiency or by kyiv’s needs.

In addition, Stoltenberg is pushing for all member states to commit to multi-year financial aid to make aid to Ukraine more predictable.

But recent reports suggest that this target could end up being watered down. Member states could commit to just $43 billion (€40 billion) over a year, rather than committing for a longer period. The extent to which the summit can institutionalise aid to Ukraine will be a key test.

3. China and the Indo-Pacific: The Globalization of Security

A few days before the Washington summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg wrote an article stressing that “security is not a regional affair but a global affair.” He also added that “the security of Europe affects Asia, and the security of Asia affects Europe.”

NATO increasingly views the European and Indo-Pacific theaters as interdependent, reflecting its growing concerns about China. It was only in 2019 that the alliance first formally discussed China as a challenge and an opportunity. Since then, NATO has adopted increasingly harsh language toward Beijing’s authorities.

China’s support for Russia during the war in Ukraine has contributed to the deterioration of relations with the West and drawn NATO deeper into the Indo-Pacific region. This week’s summit will bring together, for the third consecutive time, the leaders of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, which are not NATO members.

NATO leaders see China as a challenge, but they are not sure how to deal with it. Cooperation with NATO’s four Indo-Pacific partners remains limited. The alliance also seems unsure about the extent to which it should focus on Asia rather than Europe. And member states disagree about the severity of the threat posed by Beijing. Developing a clearer strategy toward China will be high on the agenda for the 2024 summit.

4. Projecting Unity: Cohesion in Times of Trouble

The NATO 75th anniversary summit is meant to celebrate NATO’s longevity and its ability to endure. There will certainly be some positive news to share, including the fact that 23 member states are spending 2% of their gross domestic product on defense – a long-standing NATO goal that relatively few countries have achieved until recently. NATO has also managed to provide significant military assistance to Ukraine since 2022.

But NATO is also a political alliance, and one that faces major headwinds. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s “peace mission” to Moscow, days before the NATO summit, sparked anger among other EU member states. Although French voters chose not to bring the far-right National Rally to power – a decision that could have had a significant impact on the country’s approach to NATO and Ukraine – the political landscape among NATO member states remains unstable.

And then, of course, there is the US presidential election in November. A Trump victory could mean four more years of turmoil for NATO.

While the Washington meeting is being billed as an opportunity to celebrate NATO’s longevity, the summit may well be judged on whether member states can continue to present a united front amid thorny issues and an uncertain political future for individual member states.