Leaders of Russia, China to meet at Central Asian summit in show of deepening cooperation

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet for the second time in as many months on Thursday as they travel to Kazakhstan for a session of an international group set up to counter Western alliances.

Putin and Xi last met in May, when the Kremlin leader traveled to Beijing to underscore their close partnership that opposes the U.S.-led democratic order and seeks to promote a more “multipolar” world.

They will now attend a session of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Kazakh capital of Astana. A look at the summit:

What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was established in 2001 by China and Russia to discuss security issues in Central Asia and the region. Other members include Iran, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Observer states and dialogue partners include Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

Who will be there this year?

In addition to Putin and Xi Jinping, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the summit host, other leaders attending include Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Tajikistani President Emomali Rakhmon and Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr Zhaparov. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will be present as his country becomes a full member of NATO.

Iran is still choosing a successor to President Ebrahim Raisi, killed in a helicopter crash in May, in a runoff election on Friday, and interim President Mohammad Mokhbar will be in attendance.

Other SCO guests include Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres will also be there, on a visit to Central Asia. He wants to “position the UN as an inclusive organization that engages with all the big clubs,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Which SCO leaders will not be there?

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sent his foreign minister. Indian media reported that the new minister was busy with the parliamentary session that began last week. He attended the recent G7 summit in Italy, and some media also reported that he wanted to balance India’s relations with Russia and the West.

What are their goals ?

Putin wants to show that Russia is not isolated in the face of Western sanctions linked to the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

An arrest warrant has been issued for him by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, accusing him of being personally responsible for child abductions in Ukraine. Kazakhstan is not a party to the Rome Statute and is therefore not obliged to arrest him.

For Putin, this meeting is a matter of “prestige and symbolism, showing that he is not alone,” Gabuev said.

The meeting is another opportunity for Putin and Xi to demonstrate the strength of their personal ties as part of their “strategic partnership,” as both countries face growing tensions with the West. They have met more than 40 times.

Putin’s meeting with Xi last May showed that China has offered diplomatic support to Moscow and is a major market for its oil and gas. Russia relies on Beijing as a major source of high-tech imports to power its military machine.

The SCO allows China to project its influence, particularly in Central Asia and the Global South. Xi Jinping called last week for the creation of “bridges of communication” between the countries and wants to further promote China as an alternative to the United States and its allies.

Erdogan could use the meeting to hold talks with Vladimir Putin, who has postponed several visits to Turkey. The leader of the NATO member country has maintained balanced relations with Russia and Ukraine since the start of the war, repeatedly offering to play the role of mediator.

For host Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, the meeting is a way to strengthen cooperation with larger, more powerful neighbors. Kazakhstan, for example, engages frequently with Russia and China while also seeking ties with the West, with visits this year by U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron.

What will be discussed?

Combating terrorism is a priority. Russia has suffered two attacks this year, including 145 killed by gunmen at a Moscow concert hall in March, and at least 21 people killed in attacks on police and places of worship in the southern republic of Dagestan in June. During the March violence, the United States warned Russian officials of the possibility of an attack, a report Moscow has denied.

The SCO is not a collective security or economic alliance, and there are “significant security differences between its members,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and a former British ambassador to Belarus. The organization’s “core value” lies in the perspective of non-Western countries coming together, he added.

Gabuev agreed, saying that the SCO is a place for discussion rather than a platform where “collective decisions are made, implemented and have an impact.”

This year, Belarus, a close ally of Moscow, will become a full member of the organization, and its admission shows that Russia wants to strengthen non-Western blocs. According to Gould-Davies, the SCO is increasing its profile “by increasing its membership rather than by deepening its cooperation.”

Are there tensions within the SCO?

Political differences between some SCO members – such as India and Pakistan over the Kashmir conflict – also make it difficult to reach a collective agreement on some issues.

China has supported Moscow in the Ukraine conflict, but at a 2022 SCO meeting, Putin referred to Beijing’s unspecified “concerns” about the conflict. Indian President Modi later called for an end to the fighting without expressing explicit disapproval of Moscow’s actions.

Central Asian countries maintain balanced relations with Russia and China while remaining on good terms with Western countries. None of the five former Soviet republics in Central Asia has publicly supported the war, although all abstained from a UN vote condemning it.

Guterres could use the meeting to discuss with Putin how Russia is “disrupting the coherence of the UN,” Gabuev said. Russia has vetoed UN Security Council sanctions over surveillance of North Korea and a vote on ending the arms race in space.

Given that Guterres is unlikely to travel to Moscow, the Astana meeting is probably his best chance to talk to Putin, Gabuev added.

Will Ukraine be mentioned?

Neither Ukraine nor any of its Western backers are present, and no major discussions – or breakthroughs – on the war are expected.

But since it is rare these days for a meeting to include the leaders of Russia, China, Turkey and the UN, the possibility of war discussions could be raised, at least on the periphery of the summit, probably behind closed doors.

There could be “a lot of discussion on the sidelines about Ukraine because it’s an important issue that concerns all of us,” a senior Kazakh official told The Associated Press. The official was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Gabuev said Putin would try to show that there is a “big club of countries” that are “ambivalent” toward the war in Ukraine.

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Burrows reported from London. Associated Press writers Simina Mistreanu in Taipei, Taiwan; Krutika Pathi in New Delhi; and Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, contributed to this report.