Sherrill’s Instinct, Pelosi’s Message, and Key State Scenarios

Can Americans still have a meaningful, friendly political debate across partisan lines? The answer is yes, and we prove it every week. Julie Roginskya democrat, and Mike Du Haime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposing teams throughout their careers and have remained friends. Here, they discuss the week’s events with the editorial page editor Tom Moran.

Q. Let’s start with the Cook Political Report’s striking analysis released Tuesday, which tipped the scales in Donald Trump’s favor in six states, including three key states it now classifies as “leaning Republican.” Cook is a respected bipartisan voice. If President Biden stays in the race, what are his chances?

Julie: Just look at this week’s economic numbers: inflation has plummeted, we’re at full employment, real wages are outpacing inflation, and this administration has created 15 million new jobs. Meanwhile, 2024 is shaping up to be the largest annual decline in crime in American history. Despite this record—arguably the most successful of my lifetime—voters are not giving President Biden the credit he deserves. The president has been unable or unwilling to use his platform to prosecute the case on his behalf and against Donald Trump for the past three years. I understand Democrats’ loyalty to a good man and a great president, but that doesn’t replace the threat a Trump presidency poses to the nation and the world.

Mike: Biden will still have a chance, because a large number of voters will never vote for Trump. But Biden’s chances are worse than almost any other person the Democrats could nominate. Right now, the race is a referendum on whether Biden can stay in office for another four years, and that referendum is not going to go well for Biden. Literally any other Democratic candidate makes this race a referendum on whether Trump can return to power, and that’s what Democrats should want.

Q. Rep. Mikie Sherrill became the seventh member of Congress to call on Biden to drop out of the race, taking a risk at a delicate moment. How will that impact her standing among Democrats? And the gubernatorial race next year?

Julie: It’s a risky bet, because a significant number of Democratic voters are convinced that President Biden should run again. To me, that speaks to courage and an ability to make tough decisions, even if it involves personal risk. Whether you agree with Rep. Sherrill or not, at least she tells it like it is. There are plenty of other members of the House who privately agree with her but are covering their throats and staying silent, whether out of respect for the president or out of survival instinct.

Mike: This is a decisive move by Sherrill when many others seem to be hesitant. It’s smart. She’s saying what all the other Democrats in New Jersey are thinking, so there’s a big upside. The only risk to her is that Biden gets reelected and beats her next year, but you don’t win statewide elections without taking risks.

Q. What do you think about former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s statement Wednesday that there is “still time” for Biden to leave the race and that “time is running out.” This comes two days after Biden wrote a letter to Democratic members of Congress saying he is “firmly committed” to staying in the race. Is this a Jedi stunt, or what?

Julie: How long has it been since you watched Star Wars? Obi-Wan Kenobi was a lot more subtle than Nancy Pelosi. Nancy Pelosi is the best vote-counter in the United States, and no one has a better command of the Democratic conference. Her appearance on Morning Joe, the president’s favorite TV show, was her rather blunt way of telling the president that he would continue to bleed support from the House and that time was running out for him to leave on his own terms before he was publicly abandoned by his own party.

Mike: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is held in immense respect by the Democratic Party. Democrats have until the convention to make this change. They would be better off waiting until after the Republican convention. I don’t know if that’s their plan, because it doesn’t seem like there is one.

Mike: But if you could orchestrate this well, the Democrats would let Trump get massive media coverage by nominating his vice president, spending a week promoting himself and criticizing Biden. And then, just as the polls for Trump are rebounding, Biden announces he’s not running and will release his delegates. That sets off a month-long campaign of total fury and excitement for the Democrats. Whoever wins gets a huge boost of excitement and momentum heading into Labor Day, and creates a very different contrast with Trump. But I’m not in charge of the party there orchestrating this. No one is. Only Biden can make this happen. He’d be treated like George Washington at the convention if he did that.

Q. The jury is considering the charges against the senator. Bob Menendezand as it stands, he’s running as an independent in the November primary, with about a month to drop out. What’s his motivation for threatening to run? And would it change anything in the contest between Democrat Andy Kim and Republican Curtis Bashaw?

Julie: Like Nancy Pelosi, Bob Menendez has been around long enough to know how to count. Even if he’s furious with Andy Kim, he shouldn’t be furious with Chuck Schumer and the rest of the Senate Democratic conference (with the exception of John Fetterman), who have been largely silent on his troubles. He won’t want to cause Democrats to lose the majority next year by carrying out what he knows will be a kamikaze mission. I still think his decision to run—for now—is a way to give him some breathing room to pay his legal bills.

Mike: Keeping Menendez on the ticket could make a real difference in the Senate race, but Bashaw can win either way. If Biden continues to slump, the presidential race in New Jersey will continue to get closer, keeping the Senate race in play. If Menendez gets between 3 and 9 points, nearly all of that vote will come from Kim’s Democratic base. Bashaw is already well positioned toward the center of the electorate after defeating the Trump-backed candidate in June.

Q. Sue Altman, the Democratic congressional candidate running against Rep. Tom Kean Jr., ran an unusual campaign ad that criticized both parties for corruption and featured photos of her fighting with state troopers who physically removed her during a protest at a state Capitol hearing over the Camden tax credits at the heart of the indictment against George Norcross, the southern New Jersey Democratic leader. What do you think?

Julie: I want to be clear that I don’t know Sue Altman or what her internal polling shows, so it may be that public corruption really is the number one concern for voters in the 7th Congressional District. From the research I’ve seen in other parts of the state, I think economic issues are the driving force in this year’s election, but maybe central New Jersey is the exception and it’s really George Norcross and Bridgegate that are the issue.

Mike: This was a bad first ad. She stupidly attacks Kean as corrupt. Nothing could be more absurd or implausible. For all the criticism Kean has endured during his 20 years in office and multiple runs for higher office, the one thing even his harshest critics have never suggested is any trace of corruption. No matter what you think of his policies, Tom Kean is a decent, honest, ethical public servant—a good husband, a good father, a good person. I know Altman is trying to portray herself as a crusader, but no one in the 7th District knows who she is yet, so the absurd attacks on Kean and the high school photos that clearly show her southern New Jersey roots were a strange way to introduce herself to that district.

Q. Finally, let’s not forget Trump, who gave an alarming speech At a rally in Florida this week, he called Chris Christie a “fat pig” and the January 6 prisoners “hostages.” He claimed inflation was running at 50 percent (it’s 3%), and that Democrats want to quadruple taxes. He also said that all the jobs Biden created went to immigrants, and that Biden allowed in “tens of thousands” of immigrants from “insane asylums” overseas. Are we going to ignore his mental health while we focus on Biden’s?

Julie: You don’t have to be a psychiatrist to diagnose Donald Trump’s mental illness, any more than you have to be a psychiatrist to diagnose a delusional person on a subway platform with a mental illness. One just has the advantage of money to hide his illness (even if unsuccessfully), while the other has the misfortune of being homeless.

Julie: The press has just highlighted all of Trump’s failings. Where are the thousands of articles about what he said in the debate or in his rallies and social media posts? Mental illness, coupled with autocratic tendencies and exclusive access to nuclear codes, is a terrifying combination. And yet the ratio of these articles to the articles about Biden’s health is completely out of proportion.

Mike: See my first response above. Every voter has already factored all of Trump’s antics and insane comments into their decision. The only variable in this race is Biden’s ability to stay in office for four more years. See my previous comments about Democrats allowing this race to be about Biden rather than Trump. It’s 2016 all over again – Biden and his team have shown complete arrogance.

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Note to readers: Mike and Julie are heavily involved in New Jersey politics and business advocacy, and thus both have connections to many of the players discussed in this column. DuHaime, the founder of MAD Global, has worked for Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and President George W. Bush and currently advises Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw. Roginsky, a principal at Comprehensive Communications Group, has served as a senior advisor to the campaigns of Cory Booker, Frank Lautenberg and Phil Murphy. We will only disclose specific connections if readers are likely to be misled.