Tim Benz: If Kyle Dubas’ message can be summed up with Ben Cherington quotes, it’s not great news for Penguins

Here’s a quote from Pittsburgh Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas during his press availability with reporters following Day 1 of free agency on Monday:

“We have more players who can improve — by far — than the number we can acquire. Just think about the math. How do you get better? How does that all add up? The opportunity to get better — for every team — is always going to come more through the players you already have than players you might be able to get.”

Uh, oh. Nope. Wait a minute. That’s wrong. That’s a mistake by me.

That was actually Pirates general manager Ben Cherington speaking on his radio show on Sunday about the prospect of his team making a trade before the deadline at the end of the month.

Oops! Pesky cut-and-paste. My bad.

But, you know what? Come to think of it, based on how Dubas has had to approach the offseason this year, he might want to borrow that quote from Cherington at some point between now and the start of the regular season.

Because that sure feels to me like the tact Dubas is taking with his NHL roster for 2024-25.

He’s so boxed in when it comes to potential moves that if this year’s Penguins are to get good enough to make the playoffs, that’s probably going to have to happen by way of significant improvement from everyone who is also currently in the box with Dubas.

There’s not much room for anyone else to fit inside of it, and this is a box very much of Dubas’ own creation.

Sure, he began to get the Penguins out of the one they were stuck in, thanks to Ron Hextall. But he immediately created another one by acquiring Erik Karlsson (three more years at $10 million each) and Ryan Graves (five more years at $4.5 million) while extending Tristan Jarry ($5.3 million) through 2028. Not to mention veterans such as Matt Nieto, Noel Acciari and Alex Nedeljkovic, adding up to $5.5 million against the cap this season.

With the possible exception of Nedeljkovic, Dubas swung and missed with all of those guys 13 months ago when he began his first season as Penguins GM. Now, he doesn’t have the maneuverability to try any more quick fixes.

“It would need to be somebody impactful and young shaking loose for us to go longer term. “I think we also want to keep our cap space open in case those opportunities come through the summer,” Dubas said Monday.

And, yes, that is a quote Dubas actually said Monday.

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So — much like I’m not holding my breath in anticipation of Cherington trading for Cody Bellinger or Vlad Guerrero Jr. — I’m also not eagerly anticipating Dubas landing this year’s version of Karlsson.

No, if the Pens are going to navigate their way back to the postseason for the first time since 2021-22, they will have to do it with the people they already have in-house.

Karlsson is set to have to be the player Dubas thought he was getting a year ago. Graves is set to have a Year 2 turnaround, the likes of which we haven’t seen since Sergei Gonchar’s first offseason as a Penguin. Jarry is finally going to have to prove himself worthy of being a No. 1 goalie. Rickard Rakell is set to play as a top-six winger.

Kinda like Cherington banking on Ke’Bryan Hayes busting out and Jack Suwinski finding his home run swing from last year.

Best of luck to both men on both fronts. That’s a lot of faith and patience I certainly don’t have.

When it comes to moves Dubas has swung since last weekend’s draft in Las Vegas, perhaps Anthony Beauvillier will become a less expensive version of what Reilly Smith never offered.

Perhaps what remains of Kevin Hayes will be better than what the Pens got out of the likes of Nieto, Acciari and Jeff Carter a year ago. It’s possible that the Penguins could find what Matt Grzelcyk used to have in Boston instead of constantly waiting for what PO Joseph was always supposed to be in Pittsburgh.

Even if all those things pan out, though, they are unlikely to sway the Penguins’ fortunes all that much next season.

“The honest direction of the franchise, we’re not looking to simply squeak into the playoffs,” Dubas said. “It’s about returning the team to become a contender as soon as possible. Can we do that this season? Can we do that next season? It’s hard to put a timeframe on it.”

I definitely wouldn’t start that clock that soon. But, hey, we trust Blake Lizotte!

For the best part of 31 years, the Penguins would have had every right to bristle at any sort of comparison to the Pirates’ state of affairs. That said, at this point, they are in similar situations — on the fringes of playoff participation in the muddled middle of some mediocre competition.

That’s what the Pirates are experiencing in 2024. That’s been the Penguins’ result the past two seasons, and it’s very much the forecast for 2024-25.

When it comes to Cherington and Dubas, I’ll be more careful with the cut-and-paste moving forward. It’s something I’m anticipating that I’ll have to check frequently.